Table 2

Adjusted hazard ratiosa (95% CI) for the final model for gastro-oesophageal cancer for males and females in the derivation cohortb

Adjusted hazard ratios for women (95% CI)Adjusted hazard ratios for men (95% CI)
Smoking status
 Non-smoker1.001.00
 Ex-smoker1.33 (1.11 to 1.6)1.38 (1.22 to 1.57)
 Light smoker1.96 (1.43 to 2.68)1.89 (1.51 to 2.37)
 Moderate smoker2.51 (1.93 to 3.26)2.18 (1.77 to 2.67)
 Heavy smoker3.11 (2.26 to 4.28)2.00 (1.52 to 2.63)
Current symptoms and anaemia
 Current dysphagiac131 (97.5 to 175.0)d143 (108 to 189)d
 Current abdominal painc4.74 (3.54 to 6.33)d3.78 (3.32 to 4.30)
 Current appetite lossc10.0 (5.28 to 19.0)d3.87 (2.82 to 5.32)
 Current haematemesisc25.2 (14.4 to 44.2)d7.62 (6.08 to 9.55)
 Current weight lossc3.97 (3.06 to 5.16)5.64 (4.67 to 6.81)
 Haemoglobin <11 g/dl in last yearc2.32 (1.84 to 2.93)1.79 (1.44 to 2.23)
  • a Hazard ratios were adjusted for all other terms in the table and also for age.

  • b Models included fractional polynomial terms for age: for women the term was age0.5; for men the terms were age−2, age3. The model for women also included interactions between the age term and dysphagia, abdominal pain, appetite loss, and haematemesis. The model for men included interactions between the age terms and dysphagia

  • c Compared with a person without this characteristic.

  • d Hazard ratio evaluated at the mean age.