Demographic details, diagnosis, and outcome in the derivation and validation cohorts
| Model derivation, n = 397 | Validation, n = 641 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sex, male:female | 236:161 | 378:263 | |
| Mean age, years (SD) | 52 (13.4) | 49 (14.3) | |
| Diagnosis | |||
| Viral hepatitis, n (%) | 43 (10.8) | 122 (19) | 165 (15.9) |
| Autoimmune/metabolic, n (%) | 44 (11.1) | 64 10) | 108 (10.4) |
| Biliary disease, n (%) | 3 (0.8) | 18 (2.8) | 21 (2) |
| Alcohol-related liver disease, n (%) | 121 (30.5) | 198 (30.9) | 319 (30.7) |
| Non-alcohol fatty disease, n (%) | 134 (33.8) | 188 (29.3) | 322 (31) |
| Miscellaneous, n (%) | 18 (4.5) | 28 (4.4) | 46 (4.4) |
| Primary liver cancer, n (%) | 0 | 3 (0.5) | 3 (0.3) |
| Cryptogenic cirrhosis, n (%) | 19 (4.8) | 6 (0.9) | 25 (2.4) |
| Drug related, n (%) | 15 (3.8) | 14 (2.2) | 29 (2.8) |
| Total, n (%) | 397 | 641 | 1038 |
| Stage of liver disease | |||
| No fibrosis, n (%) | 72 | Unknown | |
| Progressive fibrosis, n (%) | 170 | Unknown | |
| Cirrhosis, n (%) | 155 | Unknown | |
| Validation: mean (range), months | 54 (15–89) | 41 (13–89) | |
| Survival and complications | |||
| Dead, n (%) | 61 (15.4) | 33 (5.1) | |
| Varices, n (%) | 84 (21.2) | 24 (3.7) | |
| Ascites, n (%) | 90 (22.7) | 22 (3.4) | |
| Fibrosis markers and ALT | |||
| Mean HA, μg/l (SD) | 408 (1367) | 149 (1272) | |
| Mean P3NP, μg/l (SD) | 9.7 (12.3) | 6.0 (6.9) | |
| Mean ALT, iu/l (SD) | 76.5 (106) | 72.3 (189) | |
ALT = alanine transaminase. HA = hyaluronic acid. P3NP = procollagen-3 N-terminal peptide. SD = standard deviation.