Effect size: the independent effects of changes to values of significant predictors on total payments in a hypothetical practice of 7000 patientsa
| Predictor | Predicted change in total payment based on a value at quartile 1 of the predictor’s distribution, assuming all other predictors remained at their median | Predicted change in total payment based on a value at quartile 3 of the predictor’s distribution, assuming all other predictors remained at their median |
|---|---|---|
| Age ≥75 years | £−5491.21 (−0.76%) | £4811.95 (0.67%) |
| £−10 812.45 (−1.46%) | £9458.35 (1.28%) | |
| IMD score | £−5682.24 (−0.79%) | £7209.35 (1.00%) |
| £−6173.92 (−0.83%) | £7677.80 (1.04%) | |
| Smokers | £11 070.20 (1.54%) | £−13 118.16 (−1.83%) |
| £6452.63 (0.87%) | £−7878.13 (−1.06%) | |
| Black ethnic group | £−1016.04 (−0.14%) | £3538.72 (0.49%) |
| £−1025.27 (−0.14%) | £3852.10 (0.52%) | |
| With self-reported long-term condition | £5688.65 (0.79%) | £−5688.65 (−0.79%) |
| £4189.69 (0.57%) | £−4056.20 (−0.55%) | |
| On long-term sick or disability register | Not a predictor in 2013–2014 | Not a predictor in 2013–2014 |
| £3932.06 (0.53%) | £−5569.10 (−0.75%) | |
| On diabetes register | Not a predictor in 2013–2014 | Not a predictor in 2013–2014 |
| £50.61 (0.0068%) | £−52.18 (−0.0070%) | |
| On asthma register | £−44.34 (−0.0062%) | £40.69 (0.0057%) |
| £−33.7 (−0.0045%) | £32.57 (0.0044%) | |
| List size | £4418.45 (0.61%) | £−5863.86 (−0.82) |
| £5059.10 (0.68%) | £−6623.46 (−0.89%) | |
| WTE GPs per 10 000 patients | £−15 008.89 (−2.09%) | £17 178.46 (2.39%) |
| £−14 034.61 (−1.90%) | £16 061.15 (2.17%) | |
| WTE staff per 10 000 patients | £−43 943.07 (−6.12%) | £52 711.27 (7.34%) |
| £−45 428.78 (−6.13%) | £54 494.37 (7.36%) | |
| Total QOF points achieved | £−4229.76 (−0.59%) | 2253.37 (0.31%) |
| Not a predictor in 2014–2015 | Not a predictor in 2014–2015 | |
| On hypertension register | £−94.74 (−0.013) | £88.45 (0.012%) |
| £−128.23 (−0.017%) | £123.06 (0.017%) | |
| Reporting good appointment experience | £−208.46 (−0.029%) | £171.78 (0.024%) |
| £−176.01 (−0.024%) | £164.34 (0.022%) | |
↵a Median total (predicted) payments for a 7000 patient list were £718 480 in 2013–2014 and £740 530 in 2014–2015. In each cell, values in the first line are for 2013–2014 and in the second line for 2014–2015. Numbers inside the parentheses are the percentage changes to total payments. Calculations assumed a reference point of the total payments per patient being at the median (£102.64 in 2013–2014 and £105.79 in 2014–2015).
Equations used in the calculations: 28
1. Change in payment (amounts) = list size × median total payment per patient × [e(β coefficient ×difference between median and quartile values) −1].
2. Change in payments (percentage) = [e (β coefficient × difference between median and quartile values) −1] × 100
e = exponential function (2.71828).
IMD = Index of Multiple Deprivation. QOF = Quality and Outcomes Framework. WTE = whole-time equivalent.