Linear regression results for 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 (significant independent variables), with dependent variable logarithm of adjusted total payments per registered patient, and including all contract typesa
| Predictor | 2013–2014 β coefficient, (95% CI) | 2014–2015 β coefficient, (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|
| Population | ||
| Percentage of list aged ≥75 years | 0.0035 (0.00021 to 0.0067) | 0.0064 (0.0031 to 0.0095) |
| IMD score | 0.00098 (0.00068 to 0.0019) | 0.00099 (0.00012 to 0.0019) |
| Percentage African Caribbean | 0.16 (0.051 to 0.28) | 0.16 (0.059 to 0.27) |
| Percentage of smokers | −0.36 (−0.47 to −0.26) | −0.21 (−0.31 to −0.12) |
| Percentage with self-reported long-term condition | −0.15 (−0.25 to −0.062) | −0.11 (−0.19 to −0.022) |
| Percentage of self-reported on long-term sick or disability register | −0.21 (−0.44 to 0.0088) | −0.30 (−0.50 to −0.10) |
| Percentage on practice diabetes register | −0.0022 (−0.0079 to 0.0034) | −0.0069 (−0.012 to −0.0019) |
| Percentage on practice asthma register | 0.0073 (0.0021 to 0.012) | 0.0054 (−0.000063 to 0.010) |
| Practice | ||
| Number of registered patients | −2.43e−06 (−3.90e−06 to −9.54e−07) | −2.67e−06 (−4.01e−06 to −1.32e−06) |
| Contract type: GMS with APMS as reference | −0.14 (−0.17 to −0.10) | −0.18 (−0.21 to −0.14) |
| Contract type: PMS with APMS as reference | −0.089 (−0.13 to −0.052) | −0.14 (−0.17 to −0.11) |
| Geographical region: Midlands with north as reference | 0.087 (0.072 to 0.10) | 0.056 (0.042 to 0.07) |
| Geographical region: south with north as reference | 0.040 (0.025 to 0.056) | 0.015 (0.0056 to 0.029) |
| WTE GPs per 10 000 patients | 0.016 (0.014 to 0.019) | 0.015 (0.013 to 0.017) |
| WTE staff per 10 000 patients | 0.024 (0.023 to 0.026) | 0.024 (0.023 to 0.026) |
| Performance | ||
| Total QOF points achieved | 0.00019 (0.000075 to 0.00030) | 0.00015 (−0.000049 to 0.00034) |
| Percentage on practice hypertension register | 0.0061 (0.0031 to 0.0092) | 0.0077 (0.0048 to 0.011) |
| Percentage reporting good appointment ‘experience’ | 0.0030 (0.0027 to 0.0037) | 0.0025 (0.0019 to 0.0032) |
Significant values in bold.
↵a Adjusted R2 values: 2013–2014 = 0.359 (6209 practices); 2014–2015 = 0.374 (6282 practices). Mean variance inflation factor: 2.90 in 2013–2014; 2.88 in 2014–2015. Negative figures indicate a reduction in adjusted total payment. APMS = Alternative Provider Medical Services. GMS = General Medical Services. IMD = Index of Multiple Deprivation. QOF = Quality and Outcomes Framework. WTE = whole-time equivalent.