The predictAL-10 and predictAL-9 modelsa to predict the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking at 12 months
| Risk factors | Incidence of hazardous alcohol drinking | PredictAL-10b (N= 2264) | PredictAL-9c (N= 2278) (excluding childhood sexual abuse from the model) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | Yes (%) | OR | ORd | 95% CI | P | OR | ORe | 95% CI | P-value | |
| Constant | 0.0008 | 0.0009 | 0.0001 to 0.0071 | <0.001 | 0.0011 | 0.0012 | 0.0001 to 0.0079 | <0.001 | ||
| Province | ||||||||||
| Granada (Reference) | 499 | 7 (1.38) | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||||
| Zaragoza | 447 | 16 (3.46) | 2.02 | 1.94 | 0.49 to 8.37 | 0.333 | 1.80 | 1.73 | 0.49 to 6.70 | 0.379 |
| Madrid | 406 | 4 (0.98) | 0.72 | 0.69 | 0.15 to 3.56 | 0.690 | 0.66 | 0.64 | 0.15 to 2.93 | 0.585 |
| Logroño (La Rioja) | 429 | 29 (6.33) | 7.12 | 6.84 | 2.05 to 24.79 | 0.002 | 6.46 | 6.22 | 2.11 to 19.79 | 0.001 |
| Majorca | 258 | 13 (4.80) | 5.32 | 5.11 | 1.11 to 25.62 | 0.037 | 4.74 | 4.57 | 1.08 to 20.84 | 0.040 |
| Las Palmas | 185 | 7 (3.65) | 3.16 | 3.03 | 0.61 to 16.28 | 0.170 | 3.09 | 2.96 | 0.62 to 15.41 | 0.168 |
| Sex | ||||||||||
| Female (Reference) | 1622 | 28 (1.70) | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||||
| Male | 602 | 48 (7.38) | 3.20 | 3.07 | 1.29 to 7.91 | 0.012 | 2.82 | 2.72 | 1.62 to 6.83 | 0.022 |
| Age (range 18–75 years) | 0.993 | 0.953 | 0.972 to 1.015 | 0.539 | 0.989 | 0.952 | 0.969 to 1.010 | 0.316 | ||
| AUDIT-C | 2.51 | 2.41 | 1.63 to 3.85 | <0.001 | 2.37 | 2.28 | 1.57 to 3.59 | <0.001 | ||
| AUDIT-C*Agef | 0.991 | 0.951 | 0.984 to 0.999 | 0.045 | 0.993 | 0.956 | 0.985 to 1.000 | 0.068 | ||
| Cigarette consumption per day | ||||||||||
| Non-smoking (Reference) | 1756 | 41 (2.28) | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||||
| <10 | 181 | 12 (6.22) | 2.39 | 2.29 | 1.21 to 4.73 | 0.012 | 2.42 | 2.33 | 1.20 to 4.88 | 0.014 |
| 10–20 | 200 | 11 (5.21) | 1.28 | 1.23 | 0.51 to 3.18 | 0.600 | 1.38 | 1.33 | 0.57 to 3.31 | 0.475 |
| >20 | 87 | 12 (12.1) | 3.48 | 3.34 | 1.31 to 9.27 | 0.013 | 3.59 | 3.46 | 1.33 to 9.68 | 0.012 |
| Financial strain | ||||||||||
| Living comfortably (Reference) | 183 | 3 (1.61) | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||||
| Doing all right | 1634 | 56 (3.31) | 1.94 | 1.86 | 0.48 to 7.82 | 0.351 | 2.07 | 1.99 | 0.50 to 8.51 | 0.313 |
| Finding it difficult or very difficult | 405 | 17 (4.03) | 4.19 | 4.02 | 0.98 to 17.84 | 0.053 | 4.66 | 4.49 | 1.08 to 20.03 | 0.039 |
| Ever treated for alcohol problems | ||||||||||
| No (Reference) | 2204 | 73 (3.21) | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||||
| Yes | 12 | 3 (20.0) | 11.77 | 11.30 | 1.98 to 70.05 | 0.007 | 13.19 | 12.70 | 2.61 to 66.63 | 0.002 |
| Childhood sexual abuse | ||||||||||
| No (never) (Reference) | 2161 | 70 (3.14) | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||||||
| Yes (rarely, sometimes, often, frequently) | 49 | 6 (10.9) | 5.07 | 4.87 | 1.71 to 15.09 | 0.003 | ||||
↵a Multilevel logistic regression with health centre as a random component and weighting for the inverse probability of remaining in the follow-up to 12 months.
↵b Discriminative validity: c-index: 0.886 (95% CI = 0.854 to 0.918) and effect size (Hedges’ g): 1.694 (95% CI = 1.460 to 1.928).
↵c Discriminative validity: c-index: 0.880 (95% CI = 0.847 to 0.913) and effect size (Hedges’ g): 1.658 (95% CI = 1.425 to 1.892).
↵d Overfitting estimate: Copas’ shrinkage factor = 0.960.
↵e Overfitting estimate: Copas’ shrinkage factor = 0.963.
↵f Likelihood ratio test for the interaction: χ2 (degree of freedom:1) = 5.84; P = 0.0157. AUDIT = Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test.