Model for predictors of ED attendance for adults aged ≥18 years (n = 548 637 cases contributing to model)a
| Univariate OR | P-value | 95% CI | Multivariate ORb | P-value | 95% CI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sex | ||||||
| Male (ref) | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Female | 1.23 | 0.00 | (1.21 to 1.24) | 0.92 | 0.00 | (0.90 to 0.93) |
| Age bands, years | ||||||
| 18–34 (ref) | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 35–44 | 1.00 | 0.56 | (0.98 to 1.01) | 0.79 | 0.00 | (0.78 to 0.81) |
| 45–54 | 1.21 | 0.00 | (1.19 to 1.23) | 0.72 | 0.00 | (0.71 to 0.74) |
| 55–64 | 1.39 | 0.00 | (1.37 to 1.42) | 0.66 | 0.00 | (0.64 to 0.67) |
| 65–74 | 1.83 | 0.00 | (1.79 to 1.88) | 0.69 | 0.00 | (0.67 to 0.71) |
| ≥75 | 3.21 | 0.00 | (3.12 to 3.29) | 0.98 | 0.18 | (0.94 to 1.01) |
| Ethnicityc | ||||||
| White (ref) | 1 | 1 | ||||
| South Asian | 1.07 | 0.00 | (1.06 to 1.09) | 0.90 | 0.00 | (0.89 to 0.92) |
| Black | 1.22 | 0.00 | (1.20 to 1.24) | 1.08 | 0.00 | (1.06 to 1.10) |
| Internal IMD 2015 quintiles | ||||||
| 1 least deprived (ref) | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 2 | 1.13 | 0.00 | (1.11 to 1.16) | 1.06 | 0.00 | (1.04 to 1.09) |
| 3 | 1.18 | 0.00 | (1.15 to 1.20) | 1.08 | 0.00 | (1.05 to 1.10) |
| 4 | 1.30 | 0.00 | (1.27 to 1.32) | 1.11 | 0.00 | (1.09 to 1.14) |
| 5 most deprived | 1.42 | 0.00 | (1.39 to 1.45) | 1.15 | 0.00 | (1.12 to 1.18) |
| Residential status | ||||||
| Independent (ref) | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Housebound | 5.24 | 0.00 | (4.88 to 5.63) | 2.01 | 0.00 | (1.86 to 2.18) |
| Care home | 2.89 | 0.00 | (2.50 to 3.34) | 1.20 | 0.03 | (1.02 to 1.41) |
| Currently smoking | ||||||
| No (ref) | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Yes | 1.17 | 0.00 | (1.16 to 1.19) | 1.30 | 0.00 | (1.28 to 1.32) |
| BMI, kg/m2 | ||||||
| Normal weight (18.5 to<25) (ref) | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Underweight (<18.5) | 1.16 | 0.00 | (1.12 to 1.19) | 1.12 | 0.00 | (1.09 to 1.16) |
| Overweight (25 to<30) | 1.19 | 0.00 | (1.17 to 1.21) | 1.01 | 0.13 | (1.00 to 1.03) |
| Obese (≥30) | 1.55 | 0.00 | (1.53 to 1.58) | 1.07 | 0.00 | (1.06 to 1.09) |
| QOF long-term conditions | ||||||
| 0 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 1.65 | 0.00 | (1.63 to 1.68) | 1.12 | 0.00 | (1.10 to 1.13) |
| 2 | 2.25 | 0.00 | (2.20 to 2.30) | 1.28 | 0.00 | (1.25 to 1.31) |
| 3 | 3.35 | 0.00 | (3.23 to 3.46) | 1.65 | 0.00 | (1.59 to 1.71) |
| ≥4 | 6.02 | 0.00 | (5.75 to 6.29) | 2.55 | 0.00 | (2.44 to 2.66) |
| GP consultations per year, per patient | ||||||
| 0.5–2 (ref) | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | (0.29 to 0.30) | 0.29 | 0.00 | (0.28 to 0.29) |
| ≥2.5 | 2.47 | 0.00 | (2.44 to 2.50) | 2.44 | 0.00 | (2.40 to 2.48) |
| Miles to nearest hospital | 0.94 | 0 | (0.93 to 0.95) | 0.93 | 0.00 | (0.92 to 0.94) |
| Practice variables | ||||||
| Appointment experience good, % | 1.00 | 0.11 | (0.99 to 1.00) | 1.00 | 0.35 | (0.99 to 1.00) |
| Satisfied with opening hours, % | 1.00 | 0.55 | (1.00 to 1.01) | 1.00 | 0.16 | (0.99 to 1.00) |
| Overall experience good, % | 1.00 | 0.86 | (1.00 to 1.00) | 1.00 | 0.36 | (0.99 to 1.00) |
↵a Intraclass correlation coefficient for practice variation is 0.01 (95% CI = 0.01 to 0.01).
↵b Adjusted for other variables in the table.
↵c ’Other’ and ‘Unknown’ ethnic group categories not shown. BMI = body mass index. IMD = Index of Multiple Deprivation. OR = odds ratio. QOF = Quality and Outcomes Framework. Ref = reference.