Unadjusted and adjusted interaction effects with average temperature fall per 1°C (3-days lag perioda on death among patients aged ≥65 who died in the financial years 2012/2013 to 2013/2014 (N = 34 752 deaths)
| Unadjusted | Adjusted | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORb | RORc | 95% CI | P-value | ROR | 95% CI | P-value | |
| Temperature*sex (ref=male) | 1.012 | ||||||
| Female | 1.009 | 0.997 | 0.989 to 1.005 | 0.474 | 0.996 | 0.996 to 1.005 | 0.420 |
| Temperature*age died (ref=65–74), years | 1.011 | ||||||
| 75–84 | 1.010 | 0.999 | 0.987 to 1.011 | 0.877 | 1.000 | 0.987 to 1.012 | 0.937 |
| ≥85 | 1.011 | 1.001 | 0.989 to 1.012 | 0.901 | 1.002 | 0.991 to 1.014 | 0.696 |
| Temperature*community (ref) or institution | 1.012 | ||||||
| Institution | 1.003 | 0.992 | 0.978 to 1.006 | 0.263 | 0.990 | 0.976 to 1.006 | 0.220 |
| Temperature*urban (ref=urban conurbation) | 1.013 | ||||||
| Cities and towns | 1.010 | 0.997 | 0.988 to 1.006 | 0.531 | 1.000 | 0.990 to 1.010 | 0.990 |
| Rural | 1.009 | 0.996 | 0.982 to 1.011 | 0.637 | 0.998 | 0.982 to 1.014 | 0.791 |
| Temperature*IMD (ref=Q1) | 1.008 | ||||||
| Q2 | 1.011 | 1.003 | 0.991 to 1.016 | 0.586 | 1.003 | 0.991 to 1.015 | 0.614 |
| Q3 | 1.010 | 1.002 | 0.989 to 1.015 | 0.738 | 1.002 | 0.989 to 1.015 | 0.753 |
| Q4 | 1.011 | 1.003 | 0.990 to 1.017 | 0.616 | 1.003 | 0.990 to 1.017 | 0.637 |
| Q5 (most deprived) | 1.015 | 1.007 | 0.993 to 1.020 | 0.346 | 1.005 | 0.991 to 1.020 | 0.478 |
| Temperature*house energy efficiency (ref=Q1) | 1.009 | ||||||
| Q2 | 1.013 | 1.003 | 0.989 to 1.017 | 0.659 | 1.004 | 0.990 to 1.018 | 0.553 |
| Q3 | 1.009 | 1.000 | 0.986 to 1.014 | 0.988 | 1.001 | 0.987 to 1.015 | 0.856 |
| Q4 | 1.009 | 0.999 | 0.985 to 1.013 | 0.914 | 1.001 | 0.987 to 1.016 | 0.857 |
| Q5 (highest inefficiency) | 1.014 | 1.005 | 0.989 to 1.020 | 0.550 | 1.007 | 0.991 to 1.025 | 0.374 |
| Temperature*emergency admission (ref=no) | 1.017 | ||||||
| Yes | 1.010 | 0.993 | 0.982 to 1.004 | 0.220 | 0.992 | 0.981 to 1.003 | 0.164 |
| Temperature*chronic conditionsd (ref=no) | 1.012 | ||||||
| Yes | 1.009 | 0.997 | 0.988 to 1.005 | 0.467 | 0.997 | 0.988 to 1.005 | 0.468 |
| Temperature*north/south divide (ref=south) | 1.008 | ||||||
| North | 1.016 | 1.008 | 0.999 to 1.017 | 0.100 | 1.008 | 0.998 to 1.017 | 0.118 |
↵a Based on temperatures of date of death and 3 days previous (case day), and 28th day before date of death and 3 days previous and 28th day after date of death and 3 days previous (control days).
↵b Odds ratio per 1°C fall in temperature.
↵c Relative odds ratio to indicate modifying effect of factor to temperature, for example, for sex: odds ratio for females divided by odds ratio for males: ROR female = 1.009/1.012 = 0.997.
↵d Diagnosed with one or more of the following seven chronic conditions: chronic renal disease, cancer, asthma, stroke, coronary heart disease, diabetes, or COPD.
↵* = interaction. COPD = chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. OR = odds ratio. ref = reference. ROR = relative odds ratio.