Early last month avian flu arrived in the UK, in the form of a dead swan found substantially decomposed in a Scottish harbour. In the following days the national press had a high old time, with maps showing the likely spread of the disease across the country, challenging the government's veterinary officer with dereliction of duty, running apocalyptic warnings about the collapse of the poultry industry (including a genuinely credible fear that it may be the end, at least for the time being, of free range poultry and eggs), the plan to close all schools in order to prevent up to 50 000 deaths, and so on. It was all summed up by John Humphreys on Radio 4 as ‘Bird Flu — Don't Panic. See pages 3–26 inside for details.’ It all emphasises once again how bad scientific journalism is in the UK, and how curiously irrational we all are when it comes to assessing risk. …