As we tremble in anticipation of the predicted second wave of the great swine flu pandemic, Philip Alcabes tells us that can be confident of one thing. Contrary to the apocalyptic hype, history — in the form of the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic that killed 50 million, perhaps 70 million, people worldwide — will not repeat itself. Although it was written before the emergence of swine flu from Mexico earlier this year, Alcabes' thoughtful historical study of epidemics provides valuable insights into our current predicament.
‘The great calamities’, writes Alcabes, ‘are always, and have always been, unforeseeable and unimaginable until the moment they begin’. He argues persuasively that it is a waste of time and energy to prepare for what we can't foresee and ‘a lie to pretend that we can …