Base case | | | | | | | |
Cancer treatment cost if not identified in clinic: £9116 | | | | | | | |
Anxiety associated with clinic referral: 35% utility decrement for 3 (no cancer) or 4 weeks (cancer) | | | | | | | |
QALYs in women with cancer not referred to clinic: 52 weeks early-stage cancer, 52 weeks late-stage cancer, death at 104 weeks Probability of breast cancer with pain only presentation: 0.004 | | | | | | | |
Deterministic model | £303 | 2.57 | £41 | 2.59 | £262 | −0.012 | Reassurance dominates |
Probabilistic model | £302 (140–538) | 2.58 (0–2.98) | £41 (28–57) | 2.59 (0–2.99) | £261 | −0.011 | Reassurance dominates |
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Sensitivity analyses on deterministic model | | | | | | | |
Cancer treatment cost – higher (poor prognosis) treatment cost for women not referred to clinic: £15 483 | £303 | 2.57 | £67 | 2.59 | £236 | −0.012 | Reassurance dominates |
Anxiety from referral to clinic: none | £303 | 2.59 | £41 | 2.59 | £262 | 0.006 | £45 528 |
Anxiety from referral to clinic – lower: 5% utility decrement for 3 (no cancer) or 4 weeks (cancer) | £303 | 2.59 | £41 | 2.59 | £262 | 0.003 | £80 430 |
Anxiety from referral to clinic – higher: 50% utility decrement for 3 (no cancer) or 4 weeks (cancer) | £303 | 2.57 | £41 | 2.59 | £262 | −0.019 | Reassurance dominates |
QALYs in women with cancer not referred to clinic: 52 weeks general population health, 52 weeks late-stage cancer, death at 104 weeks | £303 | 2.57 | £41 | 2.59 | £262 | −0.013 | Reassurance dominates |
QALYs in women with cancer not referred to clinic: 26 weeks early-stage cancer, 26 weeks late-stage cancer, death at 52 weeks | £303 | 2.57 | £41 | 2.58 | £262 | −0.010 | Reassurance dominates |
Probability of breast cancer with pain only presentation – higher in both scenarios: 0.01 | £355 | 2.57 | £101 | 2.58 | £254 | −0.003 | Reassurance dominates |