RT Journal Article SR Electronic T1 Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on incidence of long-term conditions in Wales: a population data linkage study using primary and secondary care health records JF British Journal of General Practice JO Br J Gen Pract FD British Journal of General Practice SP e332 OP e339 DO 10.3399/BJGP.2022.0353 VO 73 IS 730 A1 Cathy Qi A1 Tim Osborne A1 Rowena Bailey A1 Alison Cooper A1 Joe P Hollinghurst A1 Ashley Akbari A1 Ruth Crowder A1 Holly Peters A1 Rebecca-Jane Law A1 Ruth Lewis A1 Deb Smith A1 Adrian Edwards A1 Ronan A Lyons YR 2023 UL http://bjgp.org/content/73/730/e332.abstract AB Background The COVID-19 pandemic has directly and indirectly had an impact on health service provision owing to surges and sustained pressures on the system. The effects of these pressures on the management of long-term or chronic conditions are not fully understood.Aim To explore the effects of COVID-19 on the recorded incidence of 17 long-term conditions.Design and setting This was an observational retrospective population data linkage study on the population of Wales using primary and secondary care data within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank.Method Monthly rates of new diagnosis between 2000 and 2021 are presented for each long-term condition. Incidence rates post-2020 were compared with expected rates predicted using time series modelling of pre-2020 trends. The proportion of annual incidence is presented by sociodemographic factors: age, sex, social deprivation, ethnicity, frailty, and learning disability.Results A total of 5 476 012 diagnoses from 2 257 992 individuals are included. Incidence rates from 2020 to 2021 were lower than mean expected rates across all conditions. The largest relative deficit in incidence was in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease corresponding to 343 (95% confidence interval = 230 to 456) undiagnosed patients per 100 000 population, followed by depression, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, anxiety disorders, and asthma. A GP practice of 10 000 patients might have over 400 undiagnosed long-term conditions. No notable differences between sociodemographic profiles of post- and pre-2020 incidences were observed.Conclusion There is a potential backlog of undiagnosed patients with multiple long-term conditions. Resources are required to tackle anticipated workload as part of COVID-19 recovery, particularly in primary care.