Predictors of persistent disabling low back pain at follow-up: episode-specific factors and pain history.
| Exposure | Persistent disabling low back pain n (%) | Crude RR (95% CI) | Adjusted RRa (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pain score (mm) (100 mm visual analogue scale) | |||
| 0–19 | 46 (14.5) | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 20–39 | 85 (37.1) | 2.6 (1.9 to 3.5) | 2.6 (1.9 to 3.6) |
| 40–59 | 73 (48.3) | 3.3 (2.4 to 4.6) | 3.3 (2.4 to 4.6) |
| 60–79 | 101 (68.7) | 4.7 (3.6 to 6.3) | 4.8 (3.5 to 6.4) |
| 80–100 | 55 (76.4) | 5.3 (3.9 to 7.1) | 5.1 (3.8 to 7.0) |
| Low back pain disability (Roland and Morris Disability Questionnaire20) | |||
| 0–4 (low disability) | 30 (12.4) | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 5–8 | 87 (39.0) | 3.2 (2.2 to 4.6) | 3.0 (2.1 to 4.4) |
| 9–13 | 105 (45.1) | 3.7 (2.5 to 5.3) | 3.4 (2.4 to 4.9) |
| 14–23 (high disability) | 141 (63.2) | 5.1 (3.6 to 7.3) | 4.8 (3.3 to 6.8) |
| Occurrence of low back pain every day | |||
| No | 72 (19.5) | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Yes | 291 (52.6) | 2.7 (2.2 to 3.4) | 2.5 (2.0 to 3.1) |
| Duration of current episode | |||
| <1 week | 66 (29.7) | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1–4 week | 92 (29.9) | 1.0 (0.8 to 1.3) | 1.0 (0.8 to 1.3) |
| 1–3 months | 51 (38.1) | 1.3 (0.95 to 1.7) | 1.2 (0.9 to 1.7) |
| >3 months | 154 (59.7) | 2.0 (1.6 to 2.5) | 2.0 (1.6 to 2.5) |
| Previous history of low back pain | |||
| No low back pain | 45 (28.7) | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Low back pain, without previous consultation | 60 (28.0) | 1.0 (0.7 to 1.4) | 1.0 (0.7 to 1.4) |
| Low back pain, with ≥1 previous consultation b | 258 (46.8) | 1.6 (1.3 to 2.1) | 1.7 (1.3 to 2.3) |
| Previous history of other chronic pain symptoms | |||
| No | 145 (26.8) | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Yes | 218 (57.4) | 2.1 (1.8 to 2.5) | 2.0 (1.7 to 2.4) |