Predictive value of triage questions on consultation as triage result, and the additional value of concerned parents of febrile children.
| Combination of symptoms | Consultation/symptoms | Predicted probability of consultation (95% CI) | Observed probability of consultation | Probability of consultation for non-concerned parents | Probability of consultation for concerned parents |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Children aged <18 months (n = 144) | |||||
| Normal drinking and not short of breath | 18/37 | 0.48 (0.42 to 0.67) | 0.49 | 12/28 (0.43) | 6/9 (0.67) |
| Drinking less than normal | 23/29 | 0.80 (0.76 to 0.90) | 0.79 | 16/21 (0.76) | 7/8 (0.88) |
| Short of breath | 32/41 | 0.79 (0.71 to 0.87) | 0.78 | 15/21 (0.71) | 17/20 (0.85) |
| Drinking less than normal and short of breath | 35/37 | 0.94 (0.92 to 0.97) | 0.95 | 18/20 (0.90) | 17/17 (1.00) |
| Total | 108/144 | 0.75 (0.42 to 0.97) | 0.75 | 61/90 (0.68) | 47/54 (0.87) |
| Children aged ≥18 months (n = 182) | |||||
| Duration of fever <3 days, not drowsy, and no pale, ashen, or mottled skin | 20/52 | 0.37 (0.31 to 0.61) | 0.38 | 13/41 (0.32) | 7/11 (0.64) |
| Duration of fever ≥3 days | 6/10 | 0.68 (0.51 to 0.79) | 0.60 | 1/4 (0.25) | 5/6 (0.83) |
| Drowsy | 29/38 | 0.78 (0.70 to 0.89) | 0.76 | 15/22 (0.68) | 14/16 (0.88) |
| Pale, ashen, or mottled skin | 13/18 | 0.76 (0.67 to 0.88) | 0.72 | 7/10 (0.70) | 6/8 (0.75) |
| Duration of fever ≥3 days and drowsy | 7/7 | 0.89 (0.85 to 0.95) | 1.00 | 4/4 (1.00) | 3/3 (1.00) |
| Duration of fever ≥3 days and pale, ashen, or mottled skin | 11/12 | 0.85 (0.83 to 0.94) | 0.92 | 8/9 (0.89) | 3/3 (1.00) |
| Drowsy and pale, ashen, or mottled skin | 27/28 | 0.94 (0.91 to 0.97) | 0.96 | 15/16 (0.94) | 12/12 (1.00) |
| Duration of fever ≥3 days and drowsy, and pale, ashen, or mottled skin | 16/17 | 0.98 (0.96 to 0.99) | 0.94 | 2/3 (0.67) | 14/14 (1.00) |
| Total | 129/182 | 0.71 (0.31 to 0.99) | 0.71 | 65/109 (0.60) | 64/73 (0.88) |