Table 5

Comparison of strategies to identify patients at risk of having a diagnosis of lung cancer in the next 2 years based on the validation cohort

Risk threshold at 2 years, %Number with criterionNumber of patients with criterion AND lung cancerTotal number of new diagnoses of lung cancerSensitivity, % (95% CI)Positive predictive value, % (95% CI)
Haemoptysisn/a7861504219623.0 (21 to 24.8)6.4 (5.9 to 7.0)
≥40 years AND haemoptysis AND current or ex-smokern/a4144404219618.4 (16.8 to 20.1)9.7 (8.9 to 10.7)
Top 10% risk score0.37126 6721697219677.3 (75.5 to 79.0)1.34 (1.28 to 1.40)
Top 5% risk score0.6863 3361377219662.7 (60.6 to 64.7)2.2 (2.1 to 2.3)
Top 1% risk score2.2112 667796219636.2 (34.2 to 38.2)6.3 (5.9 to 6.7)
Top 0.5% risk score4.476333602219627.4 (25.6 to 29.3)9.5 (8.8 to 10.3)
  • n/a = not applicable.