Comparison of strategies to identify patients at risk of having a diagnosis of gastro-oesophageal cancer in the next 2 years based on the validation cohort
| Criteria | Risk threshold % | True negativea | False negativeb | False positivec | True positived | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | Positive predictive value (%) | Negative predictive value (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current dysphagia | n/a | 956 541 | 909 | 5156 | 434 | 32.3 | 99.5 | 7.8 | 99.9 |
| Current haematemesis | n/a | 957 321 | 1242 | 4376 | 101 | 7.5 | 99.5 | 2.3 | 99.9 |
| Current abdominal pain | n/a | 870 379 | 1034 | 91 318 | 309 | 23.0 | 90.5 | 0.3 | 99.9 |
| Current appetite loss | n/a | 958 441 | 1308 | 3256 | 35 | 2.6 | 99.7 | 1.1 | 99.9 |
| Current weight loss | n/a | 952 634 | 1236 | 9063 | 107 | 8.0 | 99.1 | 1.2 | 99.9 |
| Anaemia | n/a | 951 467 | 1224 | 10 230 | 119 | 8.9 | 98.9 | 1.1 | 99.9 |
| Top 10% of risk | 0.2 | 875 463 | 315 | 86 234 | 1028 | 76.5 | 91.0 | 1.2 | 100.0 |
| Top 5% of risk | 0.4 | 923 347 | 465 | 38 350 | 878 | 65.4 | 96.0 | 2.2 | 99.9 |
| Top 1% of risk | 2.1 | 955 297 | 812 | 6400 | 531 | 39.5 | 99.3 | 7.7 | 99.9 |
| Top 0.5% of risk | 5.7 | 958 399 | 942 | 3298 | 401 | 29.9 | 99.7 | 10.8 | 99.9 |