Comparison of strategies to identify men at risk of having a diagnosis of different types of cancer based on the top 10% at highest risk for each cancer in the validation cohort
| Top 10% of risk | Risk threshold % | True negative | False negative | False positive | True positive | Sensitivity % | Specificity, % | PPV, % | NPV, % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lung cancer | 0.67 | 610 755 | 502 | 66 658 | 1259 | 71.5 | 90.2 | 1.9 | 99.9 |
| Colorectal cancer | 0.45 | 610 731 | 526 | 66 718 | 1199 | 69.5 | 90.2 | 1.8 | 99.9 |
| Gastro-oesophageal | 0.29 | 610 982 | 275 | 67 018 | 899 | 76.6 | 90.1 | 1.3 | 100.0 |
| Pancreatic cancer | 0.10 | 611 136 | 121 | 67 633 | 284 | 70.1 | 90.0 | 0.4 | 100.0 |
| Renal tract cancer | 0.20 | 611 026 | 231 | 66 815 | 1102 | 82.7 | 90.1 | 1.6 | 100.0 |
| Prostate cancer | 1.30 | 610 254 | 1 003 | 66 443 | 1474 | 59.5 | 90.2 | 2.2 | 99.8 |
| Blood cancer | 0.27 | 610 800 | 457 | 67 478 | 439 | 49.0 | 90.1 | 0.6 | 99.9 |
| Testicular cancer | 0.02 | 611 183 | 74 | 67 766 | 151 | 67.1 | 90.0 | 0.2 | 100.0 |
| Other cancer | 0.66 | 611 065 | 192 | 67 846 | 71 | 27.0 | 90.0 | 0.1 | 100.0 |
NPV = negative predictive value. PPV = positive predictive value.