Sensitivity/specificity, positive/negative predictive values and positive likelihood ratio (with 95% CI) of the Framingham risk score and Cambridge diabetes risk score for the prediction of CVD events.
| Cut-off point | Percent of the population | Sensitivity, % (95% CI) | Specificity, (95% CI) | Positive predictive value, % (95% CI) | Negative predictive value, % (95% CI) | Positive likelihood ratio (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Framingham score | ||||||
| risk 0.30 | 15.2 | 41.4 (39.4 to 43.5) | 87.8 (87.3 to 88.3) | 27.7 (26.2 to 29.2) | 93.0 (92.6 to 93.4) | 3.40 (3.19 to 3.62) |
| risk 0.20 | 30.4 | 65.7 (63.7 to 67.7) | 73.6 (73.0 to 74.2) | 21.9 (20.9 to 22.9) | 95.0 (94.7 to 95.4) | 2.49 (2.40 to 2.59) |
| risk 0.15 | 42.9 | 79.3 (77.5 to 81.0) | 61.2 (60.5 to 61.8) | 18.7 (17.9 to 19.5) | 96.3 (96.0 to 96.6) | 2.04 (1.99 to 2.10) |
| Cambridge score | ||||||
| score 0.30 | 24.4 | 48.9 (46.8 to 51.0) | 78.3 (77.7 to 78.9) | 20.3 (19.2 to 21.4) | 93.2 (92.8 to 93.5) | 2.26 (2.15 to 2.37) |
| score 0.20 | 35.5 | 62.2 (60.1 to 64.2)a | 67.5 (66.8 to 68.1)a | 17.7 (16.9 to 18.6) | 94.1 (93.7 to 94.4) | 1.91 (1.84 to 1.99) |
| score 0.15 | 43.2 | 70.9 (68.9 to 72.7)a | 59.9 (59.2 to 60.6) | 16.6 (15.9 to 17.4) | 94.8 (94.4 to 95.2) | 1.77 (1.71 to 1.82) |
↵a Significant difference compared with a 0.20 cut off using the Framingham score. McNemar's Test. P < 0.001. CVD = cardiovascular disease.