Table 3.

Multilevel model of all-cause mortality and melanoma-specific mortality: reduced model based on the significance of factors in the first multivariate model

All-cause mortality, HR (95% CI)Melanoma-related mortality, HR (95% CI)
Primary modelaSecondary modelaPrimary modelaSecondary modela
Primary or secondary care
  Primary0.87 (0.66 to 1.14)0.95 (0.57 to 1.61)
  Secondary1.001.00
Speciality of submitter
  GP1.001.00
  GP frequent exciserb1.25 (0.69 to 2.26)0.46 (0.15 to 1.38)
  Plastic surgeon1.14 (0.78 to 1.67)0.85 (0.43 to 1.70)
  Dermatologist1.15 (0.72 to 1.84)1.00 (0.51 to 1.96)
  Other specialist1.07 (0.74 to 1.54)0.46 (0.22 to 0.93)
  Unknown0.83 (0.41 to 1.67)0.50 (0.19 to 1.32)
Age1.07 (1.05 to 1.08)1.07 (1.05 to 1.08)1.02 (1.01 to 1.03)1.02 (1.01 to 1.03)
Sex
  Male1.001.001.001.00
  Female0.66 (0.54 to 0.80)0.66 (0.54 to 0.80)0.46 (0.32 to 0.66)0.45 (0.31 to 0.66)
Place of residence
  Large urban area1.001.001.001.00
  Other urban area0.98 (0.71 to 1.35)0.98 (0.71 to 1.34)0.68 (0.37 to 1.26)0.71 (0.39 to 1.31)
  Accessible small town0.86 (0.54 to 1.36)0.88 (0.57 to 1.37)0.75 (0.34 to 1.64)0.74 (0.32 to 1.69)
  Remote small town1.04 (0.76 to 1.41)1.08 (0.77 to 1.53)1.08 (0.64 to 1.82)1.21 (0.72 to 2.02)
  Accessible rural area0.83 (0.64 to 1.07)0.83 (0.64 to 1.08)0.82 (0.46 to 1.47)0.85 (0.49 to 1.47)
  Remote rural area1.07 (0.72 to 1.58)1.08 (0.71 to 1.65)1.08 (0.60 to 1.97)1.11 (0.58 to 2.12)
2009 SIMD quintile
  1 most deprived1.64 (1.22 to 2.20)1.65 (1.23 to 2.22)1.93 (1.02 to 3.65)1.81 (0.93 to 3.53)
  21.03 (0.83 to 1.29)1.05 (0.84 to 1.32)0.98 (0.64 to 1.49)0.93 (0.60 to 1.46)
  31.03 (0.76 to 1.39)1.04 (0.77 to 1.41)1.07 (0.66 to 1.74)1.15 (0.70 to 1.89)
  40.99 (0.75 to 1.31)0.99 (0.75 to 1.31)0.80 (0.48 to 1.32)0.73 (0.44 to 1.21)
  5 least deprived1.001.01.001.00
Anatomical site
  Head and neck1.26 (0.89 to 1.79)1.26 (0.90 to 1.76)1.00 (0.68 to 1.48)0.96 (0.65 to 1.40)
  Body1.18 (0.84 to 1.66)1.16 (0.81 to 1.66)1.12 (0.65 to 1.95)1.13 (0.64 to 2.02)
  Upper limb0.95 (0.71 to 1.26)0.95 (0.72 to 1.26)0.85 (0.50 to 1.46)0.77 (0.44 to 1.35)
  Groins2.14 (0.99 to 4.64)2.68 (1.15 to 6.22)3.31 (1.08 to 10.10)3.84 (1.01 to 14.68)
  Lower limb1.001.001.001.00
  Not stated0.85 (0.44 to 1.64)0.86 (0.44 to 1.67)0.86 (0.29 to 2.53)0.82 (0.26 to 2.58)
Melanoma type
  Superficial spreading1.001.001.001.00
  Nodular1.09 (0.84 to 1.40)1.10 (0.86 to 1.39)1.36 (0.81 to 2.28)1.45 (0.91 to 2.30)
  Lentigo maligna0.96 (0.75 to 1.24)0.96 ((0.75 to 1.24)0.96 (0.43 to 2.16)0.94 (0.43 to 2.07)
  Acral1.25 (0.78 to 2.01)1.27 (0.79 to 2.05)2.17 (1.23 to 3.83)2.24 (1.29 to 3.91)
  Other1.21 (0.76 to 1.93)1.23 (0.78 to 1.95)1.59 (0.61 to 4.13)1.60 (0.63 to 4.10)
  Not stated1.02 (0.61 to 1.70)1.02 (0.62 to 1.68)0.78 (0.25 to 2.43)0.86 (0.29 to 2.52)
Clark level
  I1.001.001.001.00
  II1.32 (0.80 to 2.19)1.31 (0.79 to 2.17)2.05 (0.64 to 6.62)2.05 (0.63 to 6.64)
  III1.48 (0.91 to 2.41)1.47 (0.90 to 2.40)2.76 (0.86 to 8.84)2.97 (0.94 to 9.42)
  IV2.50 (1.53 to 4.08)2.45 (1.50 to 4.00)7.26 (2.45 to 21.49)7.68 (2.57 to 22.89)
  V3.56 (1.97 to 6.44)3.51 (1.97 to 6.24)13.33 (3.58 to 49.67)13.78 (3.97 to 47.91)
  Not stated2.52 (1.38 to 4.59)2.56 (1.37 to 4.76)6.12 (2.06 to 18.20)5.85 (1.94 to 17.68)
Breslow depth1.05 (1.00 to 1.09)1.05 (1.01 to 1.09)1.10 (1.05 to 1.16)1.11 (1.06 to 1.17)
  • SIMD = Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation.

  • a The primary model used location of excision as the primary predictor, while the secondary model used the specialty of the submitter as the primary predictor.

  • b GPs who excised ≥5 melanomas during the study period.