Table 5

Comparison of strategies to identify patients having a diagnosis of pancreatic cancer in the next 2 years

CriteriaRisk threshold (%)True negativeFalse negativeFalse positiveTrue positiveSensitivity (%)Specificity (%)Positive predictive value (%)Negative predictive value (%)
Females
Individual symptoms
  Abdominal painNA934 307133148 13615453.786.30.1100.0
  Abdominal distensionNA1 077 993280445072.590.60.2100.0
  Appetite lossNA1 079 0102763433113.899.70.3100.0
  Weight lossNA1 066 48926115 954269.198.50.2100.0
QCancer (Pancreas)
  Top 10% risk0.2974 525104107 91718363.899.00.2100.0
  Top 5% risk0.31 028 85415553 59013246.095.00.2100.0
Males
Individual symptoms
  Abdominal painNA960 693131106 56820060.490.00.2100.0
  DysphagiaNA1 057 944322931792.799.10.1100.0
  Appetite lossNA1 064 6163182645133.9100.00.5100.0
  Weight lossNA1 053 83327513 4285616.998.70.4100.0
  ConstipationNA1 061 9463205315113.299.50.2100.0
QCancer (Pancreas)
  Top 10% risk0.2961 13085106 13024674.390.10.2100.0
  Top 5% risk0.31 014 15313953 10419157.995.00.4100.0
  • NA = not available.