Adjusted and unadjusted change between diagnosis and 5 years in CVD risk factors, by modelled CVD risk quartile at diagnosis
| Characteristic | Baseline modelled CVD risk | Combined | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <25th centile (Q1) | 25th to 49th centile (Q2) | 50th to 75th centile (Q3) | >75th centile (Q4) | ||
| Unadjusted change | |||||
| BMI, kg/m2 (SD) | −0.3 (2.42) | −0.6 (2.40) | −0.84 (2.62) | −0.4 (2.74) | −0.53 (2.56) |
| Mean (SD) systolic BP, mmHg | −6.12 (18.4) | −9.61 (21.33) | −15.69 (21.51) | −19.92 (25.35) | −12.76 (22.38) |
| Mean HbA1c, % (SD) | 0.17 (0.97) | −0.1 (1.13) | −0.42 (1.54) | −1.19 (1.91) | −0.38 (1.52) |
| Mean (SD) total cholesterol:HDL ratio | −0.67 (1.06) | −1.07 (1.21) | −1.42 (1.30) | −1.92 (1.62) | −1.26 (1.39) |
| Mean (SD) triglycerides, mmol/l | −0.03 (0.91) | −0.11 (1.45) | −0.24 (1.18) | −0.58 (1.62) | −0.24 (1.33) |
| Mean (SD) albumin:creatinine ratio | 1.08 (6.87) | 1.79 (17.38) | 0.16 (24.86) | 2.95 (29.53) | 1.49 (21.30) |
| % Change in proportion prescribed glucose-lowering drug | 53 | 56 | 63 | 76 | 61 |
| % Change in proportion prescribed BP-lowering drug | 25 | 32 | 35 | 43 | 34 |
| % Change in proportion prescribed lipid-lowering drug | 62 | 63 | 69 | 65 | 64 |
| Change adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, randomisation group, and low education, (95% CIs) | |||||
| BMI in kg/m2 | −0.2 (−0.4 to 0.05) | −0.7 (−0.9 to −0.5) | −0.7 (−0.1 to −0.5) | −0.1 (−0.5 to 0.2) | −0.5 (−0.6 to −0.4) |
| Mean (SD) systolic BP, mmHg | −3.5 (−5.7 to −1.3) | −8.7 (−10.5 to −7.0) | −14.8 (−16.9 to −12.8) | −20.5 (−23.9 to −17.0) | −12.0 (−13.1 to −10.8) |
| Mean HbA1c, % | 0.1 (0.05 to 0.2) | −0.1 (−0.2 to 0.01) | −0.6 (−0.8 to −0.5) | −1.5 (−1.7 to −1.2) | −0.4 (−0.44 to −0.3) |
| Mean (SD) total cholesterol:HDL ratio | −0.5 (−0.7 to −0.4) | −1.1 (−1.2 to −1.0) | −1.5 (−1.6 to −1.4) | −2.3 (−2.5 to −2.2) | −1.3 (−1.4 to −1.2) |
| Mean triglycerides in mmol/l | 0.04 (−0.05 to 0.1) | −0.1 (−0.2 to 0.04) | −0.2 (−0.4 to −0.1) | −0.6 (−0.7 to −0.4) | −0.2 (−0.3 to −0.2) |
| Mean albumin:creatinine ratio | 1.3 (0.7 to 2.0) | 0.5 (0.2 to 0.9) | 0.0 (−1.6 to 1.5) | 1.0 (0.1 to 1.9) | 1.0 (0.3 to 1.8) |
| Predicted probability of being prescribed medication at 5 years (if not prescribed at baseline)a (95% CIs) | |||||
| Prescribed any glucose-lowering drug | 0.38 (0.31 to 0.44) | 0.54 (0.50 to 0.59) | 0.69 (0.64 to 0.74) | 0.86 (0.81 to 0.90) | 0.62 (0.60 to 0.65) |
| Prescribed any BP-lowering drug | 0.21 (0.16 to 0.25) | 0.28 (0.24 to 0.33) | 0.42 (0.36 to 0.48) | 0.50 (0.44 to 57) | 0.36 (0.33 to 0.39) |
| Prescribed any lipid-lowering drug | 0.55 (0.48 to 0.62) | 0.68 (0.63 to 0.73) | 0.76 (0.70 to 0.81) | 0.71 (0.65 to 0.78) | 0.69 (0.66 to 0.71) |
↵a Adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, randomisation group, and age of leaving full-time education, BMI = body mass index. BP = blood pressure. CVD = cardiovascular disease. HbA1c = glycated haemoglobin. HDL = high-density lipoprotein. SD = standard deviation.