Table 3.

Sensitivity analysis, individuals prioritised for invitation based on prior CVD risk estimates compared with usual care^a

Sensitivity analysis	Change	Optimum invite, %^{^b}	Risk threshold	Cost, £	Incremental QALYs	Net benefit, £^{^c}
Base case	Not applicable	8	0.1276	162 280	17.53	188 397
Uptake assessment	Reduce from 63% to 46% uptake	8	0.1276	120 310	12.99	139 516
Start medication	Reduce by 50%^{^d}	6	0.1445	69 060	7.36	78 155
Stop medication	Increase by 50%^{^e}	20	0.0721	191 759	18.47	177 579
Assessment cost	Reduce by 50% (£37.20)	40	0.0339	326 023	28.50	243 943
Annual monitoring cost	Reduce by 50% (£60.06)	30	0.0488	116 314	27.20	427 743
RR of diabetes SA1	Change from 1.31 to 0.99	30	0.0488	264 881	43.41	603 313
RR of diabetes SA2	Change from 1.31 to 1.12	30	0.0488	303 986	36.86	433 247
RR of diabetes SA3	Change from 1.31 to 1.73	2	0.2029	31 591	4.57	59 793
Utility decrement diabetes	Change from 0.131 to 0.015	30	0.0488	362 956	40.16	440 154
Disutility of treatment	Change from 0 to 0.001	6	0.1445	108 849	13.01	151 389

↵a Results per 10 000 persons.
↵b Strategy with the largest incremental net benefit is the ‘optimum’ at this threshold, yielding the greatest QALY gain while accounting for the opportunity cost of scarce healthcare resources.
↵c Based on £20 000 per QALY gained.
↵d Initiate treatment with statins, reduce from 0.683 to 0.3415, and with antihypertensives, reduce from 0.565 to 0.2825 (invitation-based strategies).
↵e Stay on statin medication, 1 year: 0.8614 to 0.4307, 5 years: 0.6877 to 0.343875; stay on antihypertensive medication, 1 year: 0.7055 to 0.35275, 5 years: 0.4905 to 0.24525. CVD = cardiovascular disease. QALY = quality-adjusted life year. RR = relative risk. SA1 = sensitivity analysis 1, SA2 = sensitivity analysis 2. SA3 = sensitivity analysis 3.