Linear regression results for 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 with dependent variable logarithm of adjusted total payments per registered patient, and including GMS contract practices onlya
| Predictor | 2013–14 β coefficient (95% CI) | 2014–15 β coefficient (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|
| Population | ||
| Percentage of list aged ≥75 years | −0.00050 (−0.0038 to 0.0046) | 0.0048 (0.00036 to 0.0093) |
| IMD score | 0.00027 (−0.00098 to 0.0015) | 0.0017 (0.00041 to 0.0030) |
| Percentage African Caribbean | 0.038 (−0.13 to 0.21) | 0.011 (−0.17 to 0.19) |
| Percentage South Asian | −0.075 (−0.18 to 0.030) | −0.037 (−0.15 to 0.076) |
| Percentage of smokers | −0.33 (−0.47 to −0.18) | −0.34 (−0.48 to −0.19) |
| Percentage with self-reported long term condition | −0.24 (−0.36 to −0.12) | −0.047 (−0.17 to 0.078) |
| Percentage of self-reported on long-term sick or disability register | −0.16 (−0.46 to 0.15) | −0.48 (−0.79 to −0.17) |
| Percentage of self-reported confident about managing own health | 0.0046 (−0.24 to 0.25) | 0.19 (−0.052 to 0.44) |
| Percentage of self-reported unemployed | −0.26 (−0.47 to −0.044) | −0.24 (−0.47 to 0.0028) |
| Percentage on practice diabetes register | −0.0045 (−0.0079 to 0.0070) | −0.0022 (−0.0010 to 0056) |
| Percentage on practice heart failure register | 0.022 (−0.0072 to 0.051) | −0.013 (−0.042 to 0.017) |
| Percentage on practice asthma register | 0.011 (0.0035 to 0.017) | 0.0035 (−0.0037 to 0.011) |
| Percentage on practice COPD register | −0.0028 (−0.017 to 0.012) | −0.0090 (−0.024 to 0.0062) |
| Practice | ||
| List size | −8.06e−06 (−2.98e−06 to 1.37e−07) | −1.19e−06 (−3.42e−06 to 1.05e−06) |
| Geographical region: Midlands with north as reference | 0.099 (0.079 to 0.12) | 0.048 (0.027 to 0.068) |
| Geographical region: south with north as reference | 0.062 (0.041 to 0.082) | 0.021 (−0.00016 to 0.043) |
| WTE GPs per 10 000 patients | 0.020 (0.017 to 0.023) | 0.017 (0.013 to 0.020) |
| WTE nurses per 10 000 patients | −0.015 (−0.023 to −0.0075) | −0.018 (−0.026 to −0.010) |
| WTE staff per 10 000 patients | 0.030 (0.028 to 0.032) | 0.029 (0.026 to 0.031) |
| Performance | ||
| Total QOF points achieved | 0.000064 (−0.000087 to 0.00022) | 0.00014 (−0.00014 to 0.00043) |
| Percentage on practice hypertension register | 0.0090 (0.0050 to 0.013) | 0.012 (0.0078 to 0.016) |
| Percentage of the hypertension register with the last blood pressure reading ≤150/90 mmHg | −0.00031 (−0.0014 to 0.0015) | 0.00085 (−0.00071 to 0.0024) |
| Percentage of the diabetes register with the last HbA1c ≤7.5% (59 mmol/mol) | 0.00062 (−0.0011 to 0.00010) | −0.00034 (−0.0014 to 0.00071) |
| Percentage self-reported unable to obtain appointment | −0.068 (−0.27 to 0.13) | −0.089 (−0.28 to 0.11) |
| Percentage self-reported able to see a GP or nurse within 48 hours | 0.00015 (−0.00036 to 0.00065) | 0.00032 (−0.00022 to 0.00085) |
| Percentage having a preferred GP | 0.091 (0.031 to 0.15) | 0.12 (0.060 to 0.18) |
| Percentage reporting good appointment ‘experience’ | 0.0034 (0.0024 to 0.0044) | 0.0025 (0.0015 to 0.0034) |
Significant values in bold.
↵a Adjusted R2 values: 2013–2014 = 0.440 (3596 practices); 2014–2015 = 0.392 (3621 practices). Mean variance inflation factor: 2.17 in 2013–2014, 2.20 in 2014–2015. Negative figures indicate a reduction in payment. COPD = chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. IMD = Index of Multiple Deprivation. QOF = Quality and Outcomes Framework. WTE = whole-time equivalent.