Linear regression results for 2013–2014 and 2014–2015, with dependent variable logarithm of the global sum plus MPIG payments per registered patient, and including GMS contract practices onlya
| Predictor | 2013–2014 β coefficient (95% CI) | 2014–2015 β coefficient (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|
| Population | ||
| Percentage of list aged ≥75 years | −0.012 (−0.014 to −0.011) | −0.010 (−0.012 to −0.0086) |
| IMD score | −0.0019 (−0.0025 to −0.0014) | −0.0011 (−0.0016 to −0.00063) |
| Percentage African Caribbean | 0.16 (0.083 to 0.24) | 0.075 (0.0044 to 0.14) |
| Percentage South Asian | 0.15 (0.11 to 0.20) | 0.089 (0.045 to 0.13) |
| Percentage of smokers | 0.014 (−0.051 to 0.079) | 012 (−0.046 to 0.069) |
| Percentage with self-reported long-term condition | −0.092 (−0.15 to −0.037) | −0.034 (−0.082 to 0.014) |
| Percentage of self-reported on long-term sick or disability register | −0.080 (−0.22 to 0.058) | −0.13 (−0.25 to −0.0078) |
| Percentage of self-reported confident about managing own health | −0.11 (−0.22 to −0.0042) | −0.028 (−0.12 to 0.067) |
| Percentage of self-reported unemployed | −0.0010 (−0.098 to 0.096) | 0.022 (−0.070 to 0.11) |
| Percentage on practice diabetes register | −0.0064 (−0.0094 to −0.0034) | −0.0041 (−0.0068 to −0.0014) |
| Percentage on practice heart failure register | 0.0048 (−0.0083 to 0.018) | −0.00039 (−0.012 to 0.011) |
| Percentage on practice asthma register | 0.0016 (−0.0015 to 0.0047) | −0.00014 (−0.0026 to 0.0029) |
| Percentage on practice COPD register | −0.0041 (−0.0011 to 0.0024) | −0.0077 (−0.014 to −0.0019) |
| Practice | ||
| List size | −3.36e−06 (−4.25e−06 to −2.48e−06) | −2.89e−06 (−3.67e−06 to −2.10e−06) |
| Geographical region: Midlands with north as reference | 0.016 (0.0065 to 0.025) | 0.019 (0.011 to 0.027) |
| Geographical region: south with north as reference | 0.024 (0.015 to 0.033) | 0.026 (0.017 to 0.034) |
| WTE GPs per 10 000 patients | 0.0060 (0.0047 to 0.0074) | 0.0050 (0.0038 to 0.0062) |
| WTE nurses per 10 000 patients | −0.00047 (−0.0030 to 0.0040) | 0.0032 (−5.16e−07 to 0.0065) |
| WTE staff per 10 000 patients | 0.0043 (0.0035 to 0.0052) | 0.0037 (0.0029 to 0.0045) |
Significant values in bold.
↵a Adjusted R2 values: 2013–2014 = 0.283 (3530 practices); 2014–2015 = 0.202 (3621 practices). Mean variance inflation factor: 2.06 in 2013–2014, 2.03 in 2014–2015. Negative figures indicate a reduction in payment. COPD = chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. IMD = Index of Multiple Deprivation. MPIG = minimum practice income guarantee. WTE = whole-time equivalent.