Table 2.

Estimated cost and QALY gain of a case-finding strategy based on prior estimated CVD risk versus opportunistic assessmenta

Invited, %Cut-off 10-year QRisk threshold above which patients are invitedExtra cost, £QALY gainIncremental cost-effectiveness ratio, £Net benefit, £bProbability highest net benefit, %
0000.00003.9
20.202718 5536.962666120 62411.2
40.166759 68911.269567165 49712.0
60.1445109 24814.6814 491184 36010.2
80.1277162 28017.5318 608188 3978.3
100.1142215 72219.8922 645181 9946.7
130.0983278 48722.3925 106169 3084.7
150.0896298 68623.3221 719167 6414.6
200.0721323 63224.8716 094173 8207.3
250.0590343 94926.0816 791177 5667.6
300.0488364 68426.9922 786175 2006.9
350.0406386 54827.7628 395168 6666.0
400.0339409 01628.3836 239158 5514.2
450.0283431 76428.8647 392145 4523.2
500.0236455 91529.2365 273128 6481.6
550.0197480 42229.5187 525107 7971.0
600.0163505 46129.74108 86589 3780.4
700.0110555 95530.04168 31344 7470.2
800.0071606 74330.21298 753−25360.01
900.0041656 96330.30558 000−51 0290.00
950.0028681 60830.312 464 500−75 3700.00
1000.0006705 73230.322 412 400−99 4300.00
  • a Selecting 0–100% of the population for assessment compared with usual practice for 10 000 patients. Mean per 10 000 persons.

  • b Based on £20 000 per QALY gained. CVD = cardiovascular disease. QALY = quality-adjusted life year.