Table 5.

Unadjusted and adjusted interaction effects with average temperature fall per 1°C (3-days lag period)^a on death among patients aged ≥65 years who died in winters of the financial years 2012/2013 to 2013/2014 due to diseases of the circulatory system, respiratory system, nervous system, or mental and behavioural disorders (N = 7710 deaths)

	Unadjusted				Adjusted

	OR^b	ROR^c	95% CI	P-value	ROR	95% CI	P-value
Temperature^* sex (ref=male)	1.090
Female	1.070	0.982	0.962 to 1.003	0.091	0.980	0.959 to 1.002	0.082

Temperature^*age died (ref=65–74), years	1.075
75–84	1.079	1.004	0.969 to 1.041	0.820	1.006	0.971 to 1.044	0.729
≥85	1.079	1.004	0.972 to 1.038	0.795	1.012	0.978 to 1.048	0.488

Temperature^*community (ref) or institution	1.080
Institution	1.067	0.987	0.955 to 1.019	0.431	0.989	0.956 to 1.022	0.516

Temperature^*urban (ref=urban conurbation)	1.096
Cities and towns	1.068	0.975	0.951 to 0.998	0.036	0.984	0.959 to 1.010	0.227
Rural	1.088	0.993	0.956 to 1.031	0.700	0.989	0.950 to 1.030	0.592

Temperature^*IMD (ref=Q1)	1.080
Q2	1.092	1.011	0.979 to 1.045	0.493	1.012	0.979 to 1.046	0.488
Q3	1.074	0.994	0.962 to 1.028	0.740	0.997	0.964 to 1.030	0.820
Q4	1.066	0.987	0.953 to 1.021	0.448	0.988	0.953 to 1.024	0.497
Q5 (most deprived)	1.079	0.999	0.963 to 1.035	0.956	0.992	0.955 to 1.031	0.685

Temperature^*house energy efficiency (ref=Q1)	1.069
Q2	1.076	1.006	0.972 to 1.043	0.718	1.012	0.978 to 1.049	0.494
Q3	1.074	1.004	0.969 to 1.041	0.808	1.008	0.973 to 1.046	0.645
Q4	1.079	1.010	0.975 to 1.046	0.598	1.013	0.977 to 1.052	0.486
Q5 (highest inefficiency)	1.099	1.028	0.989 to 1.068	0.167	1.027	0.984 to 1.071	0.215

Temperature^*emergency admission (ref=no)	1.093
Yes	1.075	0.983	0.959 to 1.010	0.221	0.979	0.953 to 1.006	0.132

Temperature^*chronic conditions^d (ref=no)	1.079
Yes	1.077	0.998	0.975 to 1.022	0.894	0.999	0.975 to 1.024	0.917

Temperature^*north/south divide (ref=south)	1.067
North	1.108	1.038	1.013 to 1.063	0.002	1.040	1.013 to 1.066	0.002

↵a Based on temperatures of date of death and 3 days previous (case day), and 28th day before date of death and 3 days previous and 28th day after date of death and 3 days previous (control days).
↵b Odds ratio per 1°C fall in temperature.
↵c Relative odds ratio to indicate modifying effect of factor to temperature, for example, for sex: odds ratio for females divided by odds ratio for males: ROR female = 1.070/1.090 = 0.982.
↵d Diagnosed with one or more of the following seven chronic conditions: chronic renal disease, cancer, asthma, stroke, coronary heart disease, diabetes, or COPD.
↵* = interaction. COPD = chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. OR = odds ratio. ref = reference. ROR = relative odds ratio.