Table 5.

Unadjusted and adjusted interaction effects with average temperature fall per 1°C (3-days lag period)a on death among patients aged ≥65 years who died in winters of the financial years 2012/2013 to 2013/2014 due to diseases of the circulatory system, respiratory system, nervous system, or mental and behavioural disorders (N = 7710 deaths)

ORbRORc95% CIP-valueROR95% CIP-value
Temperature* sex (ref=male)1.090
  Female1.0700.9820.962 to 1.0030.0910.9800.959 to 1.0020.082
Temperature*age died (ref=65–74), years1.075
  75–841.0791.0040.969 to 1.0410.8201.0060.971 to 1.0440.729
  ≥851.0791.0040.972 to 1.0380.7951.0120.978 to 1.0480.488
Temperature*community (ref) or institution1.080
  Institution1.0670.9870.955 to 1.0190.4310.9890.956 to 1.0220.516
Temperature*urban (ref=urban conurbation)1.096
  Cities and towns1.0680.9750.951 to 0.9980.0360.9840.959 to 1.0100.227
  Rural1.0880.9930.956 to 1.0310.7000.9890.950 to 1.0300.592
Temperature*IMD (ref=Q1)1.080
  Q21.0921.0110.979 to 1.0450.4931.0120.979 to 1.0460.488
  Q31.0740.9940.962 to 1.0280.7400.9970.964 to 1.0300.820
  Q41.0660.9870.953 to 1.0210.4480.9880.953 to 1.0240.497
  Q5 (most deprived)1.0790.9990.963 to 1.0350.9560.9920.955 to 1.0310.685
Temperature*house energy efficiency (ref=Q1)1.069
  Q21.0761.0060.972 to 1.0430.7181.0120.978 to 1.0490.494
  Q31.0741.0040.969 to 1.0410.8081.0080.973 to 1.0460.645
  Q41.0791.0100.975 to 1.0460.5981.0130.977 to 1.0520.486
  Q5 (highest inefficiency)1.0991.0280.989 to 1.0680.1671.0270.984 to 1.0710.215
Temperature*emergency admission (ref=no)1.093
  Yes1.0750.9830.959 to 1.0100.2210.9790.953 to 1.0060.132
Temperature*chronic conditionsd (ref=no)1.079
  Yes1.0770.9980.975 to 1.0220.8940.9990.975 to 1.0240.917
Temperature*north/south divide (ref=south)1.067
  North1.1081.0381.013 to 1.0630.0021.0401.013 to 1.0660.002
  • a Based on temperatures of date of death and 3 days previous (case day), and 28th day before date of death and 3 days previous and 28th day after date of death and 3 days previous (control days).

  • b Odds ratio per 1°C fall in temperature.

  • c Relative odds ratio to indicate modifying effect of factor to temperature, for example, for sex: odds ratio for females divided by odds ratio for males: ROR female = 1.070/1.090 = 0.982.

  • d Diagnosed with one or more of the following seven chronic conditions: chronic renal disease, cancer, asthma, stroke, coronary heart disease, diabetes, or COPD.

  • * = interaction. COPD = chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. OR = odds ratio. ref = reference. ROR = relative odds ratio.