Table 3.

Modelling of failure to complete medications changes

	Univariate models			Multivariate model
	OR	95% CI	P-value	OR	95% CI	P-value
BNF chapter (2 is reference)			<0.001^a			<0.001
BNF chapter 1 (Gastrointestinal)	9.77	5.26 to 18.15	<0.001	8.55	4.30 to 16.99	<0.001
BNF chapter 3 (Respiratory)	4.93	1.47 to 16.58	0.010	4.16	1.15 to 15.06	0.030
BNF chapter 4 (CNS)	6.66	3.38 to 13.12	<0.001	7.41	3.56 to 15.44	<0.001
BNF chapter 6 (Endocrine)	1.93	0.61 to 6.08	0.264	1.39	0.42 to 4.62	0.590
BNF chapter 7 (Genitourinary)	5.92	1.47 to 23.78	0.012	3.40	0.68 to 17.01	0.136
BNF chapter 9 (Nutrition and blood)	3.29	1.32 to 8.18	0.010	2.06	0.77 to 5.52	0.150
BNF chapter 10 (Musculoskeletal and Joint)	6.58	1.22 to 35.37	0.028	5.58	0.98 to 31.76	0.053
BNF chapter 16 (Dietary supplements^b)	8.13	2.93 to 22.57	<0.001	7.41	2.31 to 23.78	0.001
BNF chapter other	7.18	2.04 to 25.21	0.002	8.88	2.32 to 34.01	0.001
Medication (newly started is reference)			<0.001^a			0.025^a
Medication stopped	0.25	0.14 to 0.46	<0.001	0.40	0.20 to 0.81	0.011
Dose changed	0.70	0.40 to 1.21	0.201	0.81	0.41 to 1.61	0.553
No reason for medicines change	1.71	1.08 to 2.68	0.021	1.64	0.92 to 2.91	0.094
Practice (10 is reference)			0.043^a			^c
Practice 11	0.77	0.31 to 1.88	0.563
Practice 12	1.18	0.47 to 2.93	0.722
Practice 13	0.83	0.33 to 2.07	0.686
Practice 14	1.32	0.54 to 3.25	0.547
Practice 15	2.04	0.87 to 4.81	0.103
Practice 16	1.29	0.53 to 3.18	0.574
Practice 17	0.87	0.35 to 2.15	0.767
Practice 18	0.63	0.24 to 1.66	0.351
Practice 19	0.40	0.14 to 1.18	0.097
Admission length	0.99	0.98 to 1.00	0.011	0.99	0.98 to 1.00	0.150
Days to GP workflow	1.11	0.84 to 1.47	0.473
Receipt time estimate	1.01	1.00 to 1.01	0.023	1.01	1.00 to 1.02	0.003
Specialty surgical	2.28	1.33 to 3.92	0.003	1.70	0.88 to 3.29	0.117
GP ratio to population	1.00	1.00 to 1.00	0.235
Practice size (small is reference)			0.011^a			0.240^a
Medium practice size	0.47	0.26 to 0.84	0.011	0.52	0.16 to 1.68	0.274
Large practice size	0.37	0.19 to 0.69	0.002	0.32	0.08 to 1.39	0.130
EMIS Web IT system	0.85	0.57 to 1.26	0.415
Training practice status	0.90	0.56 to 1.43	0.648
IMD of practice	1.00	0.99 to 1.02	0.608
Urban practice	0.81	0.43 to 1.53	0.508
QOF score of practice	0.93	0.88 to 0.99	0.033	1.00	0.90 to 1.12	0.962
CQC rating	1.29	0.88 to 1.90	0.198
Patient age	1.01	0.98 to 1.05	0.411
Patient sex, male	0.93	0.63 to 1.37	0.715
Number of medicines changes	0.85	0.78 to 0.92	<0.001	0.86	0.77 to 0.95	0.004
Hospital (Nottingham QMC is reference)			0.001^a			0.339^a
Central Manchester Hospital	0.56	0.30 to 1.06	0.073	0.68	0.29 to 1.61	0.381
University of Coventry Hospital	1.69	1.06 to 2.69	0.029	1.07	0.46 to 2.51	0.868
Other hospitals	0.36	0.13 to 1.03	0.058	0.38	0.11 to 1.32	0.129
Follow-up on phone	1.21	0.81 to 1.80	0.361

↵a ANOVA P-values are from a likelihood ratio test, the remainder are Wald P-values.
↵b For example, Fortisip.
↵c Practice variable not included in multivariate model due to confounding with practice size and QOF score. ANOVA = analysis of variance. BNF = British National Formulary. CQC = Care Quality Commission. EMIS = Egton Medical Information Systems. IMD = index of multiple deprivation. OR = odds ratio. QMC = Queen’s Medical Centre. QOF = Quality and Outcomes Framework.