Table 4.

Final multivariable predictors of high parent illness severity score and high clinician illness severity score (all P<0.01)

Illness of severity score
High parent score (≥7)
(AUROC 0.68, 95% CI = 0.66 to 0.69)
High clinician score (≥4)
(AUROC 0.67, 95% CI = 0.66 to 0.68)
High clinician score (≥4)
(AUROC 0.79, 95% CI = 0.79 to 0.80)
Model 1
(Demographics and symptoms)
Model 1
(Demographics and symptoms)
Model 2
(Demographics, symptoms, and clinical signs)
SourceOdds ratio95% CIOdds ratio95% CIOdds ratio95% CI
Sociodemographic
≥2 children at homeParent1.281.15 to 1.44aa
Clinical history
Illness deteriorated recently before consultationParenta2.111.89 to 2.341.901.69 to 2.13
Symptoms
Change in cryParent1.301.13 to 1.491.291.14 to 1.461.391.21 to 1.59
Rapid breathing/raised respiratory ratebParent/clinician1.881.69 to 2.101.781.61 to 1.981.431.28 to 1.59
Severe fever/temperature ≥37.8°CParent/clinician2.582.12 to 3.133.042.52 to 3.673.583.12 to 4.10
Severe dry coughParent1.931.60 to 2.34aa
Severe disturbed sleepParent1.321.14 to 1.52aa
Severe reduced eatingParent1.581.26 to 1.98aa
Moderate-to-severe reduced fluid intakeParent1.551.34 to 1.80aa
Clinical examination
PallorClinician0.580.49 to 0.70
Irritable or drowsyClinician1.911.22 to 2.99
Nasal flaringClinician3.081.76 to 5.41
Inter/subcostal recessionClinician4.913.54 to 6.82
WheezeClinician2.311.98 to 2.68
Crackles/crepitationsClinician4.794.18 to 5.50
  • a P≥0.01 and therefore not included in the model.

  • b Age-related cut-offs. AUROC = area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. CI = confidence interval.