Table 2.

Multivariate model for predictors of GP-suspected COVID-19 for adults aged ≥18 years (N = 1 257 137 patients contributing to the model)

Variable		Model 1 Demographic factors			Model 2 Demographic and clinical factors

		OR^a	95% CI	P-value	OR^a	95% CI	P-value
Sex	Male	1.00	ref	ref	1.00	ref	ref
Sex	Female	1.25	(1.20 to 1.31)	<0.001	1.17	(1.12 to 1.22)	<0.001

Age, years	18–49	1.00	ref	ref	1.00	ref	ref
	50–69	2.14	(2.03 to 2.24)	<0.001	1.30	(1.23 to 1.37)	<0.001
	≥69	2.57	(2.40 to 2.74)	<0.001	1.25	(1.16 to 1.35)	<0.001

Ethnicity	White	1.00	ref	ref	1.00	ref	ref
	South Asian	2.06	(1.94 to 2.18)	<0.001	1.93	(1.83 to 2.04)	<0.001
	Black	1.66	(1.56 to 1.77)	<0.001	1.47	(1.38 to 1.57)	<0.001
	Other	1.28	(1.17 to 1.40)	<0.001	1.41	(1.29 to 1.54)	<0.001
	Not stated/missing	0.68	(0.63 to 0.73)	<0.001	1.13	(1.05 to 1.22)	0.002

Internal IMD 2015 quintiles^b	1 (least deprived)	1.00	ref	ref	1.00	ref	ref
	2	1.24	(1.14 to 1.33)	<0.001	1.18	(1.09 to 1.28)	<0.001
	3	1.23	(1.13 to 1.32)	<0.001	1.16	(1.07 to 1.25)	<0.001
	4	1.32	(1.22 to 1.43)	<0.001	1.21	(1.17 to 1.37)	<0.001
	5 (most deprived)	1.40	(1.29 to 1.51)	<0.001	1.26	(1.17 to 1.37)	<0.001

QOF long-term conditions	0	—	—	—	1.00	ref	ref
	1	—	—	—	1.77	(1.67 to 1.87)	<0.001
	2	—	—	—	2.28	(2.13 to 2.45)	<0.001
	3	—	—	—	2.60	(2.37 to 2.85)	<0.001
	≥4	—	—	—	3.67	(3.33 to 4.03)	<0.001

BMI (kg/m²)^c	Normal weight (18.5 to <25)	—	—	—	1.00	ref	ref
	Underweight (<18.5)	—	—	—	0.84	(0.73 to 0.97)	0.02
	Overweight (25 to <30)	—	—	—	1.31	(1.24 to 1.38)	<0.001
	Obese (30 to <35)	—	—	—	1.73	(1.63 to 1.84)	<0.001
	Morbidly obese (>40)	—	—	—	2.23	(2.01 to 2.47)	<0.001

Intraclass correlation coefficient for practice variation is 0.16 (95% CI = 0.13 to 0.20).
↵a Adjusted for other variables in the table.
↵b Unknown IMD quintiles not shown.
↵c Unknown BMI not shown. BMI = body mass index. IMD = Index of Multiple Deprivation. OR = odds ratio. QOF = Quality and Outcomes Framework.