Univariate and multivariate competing-risks regression analyses investigating the predictors of primary care consultation after hospitalisation for pneumonia in the first 30 days after discharge
| Variable | Did not consult, n (%) | Consulted, n (%) | Univariate CRR sHR (95% CI) | Multivariate CRR sHR (95% CI) | P-value | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patients | 24 854 (44.1) | 31 542 (55.9) | — | — | — | |||
| Age, years | ||||||||
| 18–49 | 4017 (48.9) | 4191 (51.1) | Reference | Reference | — | |||
| 50–64 | 3755 (42.5) | 5075 (57.5) | 1.18 (1.13 to 1.23) | 1.08 (1.04 to 1.13) | <0.001a | |||
| 65–74 | 4277 (40.7) | 6222 (59.3) | 1.24 (1.19 to 1.28) | 1.08 (1.03 to 1.12) | <0.001a | |||
| 75–84 | 6459 (42.2) | 8858 (57.8) | 1.21 (1.16 to 1.25) | 1.03 (0.99 to 1.07) | 0.161 | |||
| ≥85 | 6346 (46.9) | 7196 (53.1) | 1.10 (1.06 to 1.14) | 0.95 (0.91 to 0.99) | 0.018a | |||
| Sex | ||||||||
| Male | 12 277 (43.8) | 15 725 (56.2) | Reference | Reference | — | |||
| Female | 12 577 (44.3) | 15 817 (55.7) | 0.99 (0.96 to 1.01) | 0.99 (0.97 to 1.01) | 0.32 | |||
| Smoking status | ||||||||
| Never | 8036 (45.5) | 9634 (54.5) | Reference | Reference | — | |||
| Ex-smoker | 5970 (42.3) | 8149 (57.7) | 1.08 (1.05 to 1.11) | 1.03 (1.00 to 1.06) | 0.03a | |||
| Current | 9897 (43.1) | 13 061 (56.9) | 1.06 (1.03 to 1.09) | 1.03 (1.00 to 1.06) | 0.027a | |||
| Unknown | 951 (57.7) | 698 (42.3) | — | — | — | |||
| Alcohol status | ||||||||
| Non-drinker | 5559 (44.2) | 7016 (55.8) | Reference | — | — | |||
| Former drinker | 1164 (41.1) | 1667 (58.9) | 1.08 (1.03 to 1.14) | — | — | |||
| Occasional drinker | 3276 (42.4) | 4454 (57.6) | 1.04 (1.00 to 1.08) | — | — | |||
| Moderate drinker | 7717 (42.4) | 10 499 (57.6) | 1.03 (1.00 to 1.06) | — | — | |||
| Heavy drinker | 2896 (44.2) | 3663 (55.8) | 0.98 (0.94 to 1.02) | — | — | |||
| Unknown | 4242 (50.0) | 4243 (50.0) | — | — | — | |||
| CAP admission year | ||||||||
| 2002/03–2004/05 | 3296 (44.6) | 4094 (55.4) | Reference | Reference | — | |||
| 2005/06–2006/07 | 2650 (41.3) | 3764 (58.7) | 1.09 (1.05 to 1.14) | 1.03 (0.99 to 1.08) | 0.144 | |||
| 2007/08–2008/09 | 3387 (42.5) | 4576 (57.5) | 1.05 (1.01 to 1.09) | 0.98 (0.94 to 1.02) | 0.256 | |||
| 2009/10–2010/11 | 4157 (43.7) | 5357 (56.3) | 1.03 (0.98 to 1.07) | 0.95 (0.91 to 0.99) | 0.008a | |||
| 2011/12–2012/13 | 4416 (43.6) | 5717 (56.4) | 1.04 (1.00 to 1.08) | 0.95 (0.91 to 0.99) | 0.014a | |||
| 2013/14–2014/15 | 3984 (44.1) | 5042 (55.9) | 1.04 (1.00 to 1.08) | 0.95 (0.91 to 0.99) | 0.015a | |||
| 2015/16–2016/17 | 2964 (49.8) | 2992 (50.2) | 0.88 (0.84 to 0.93) | 0.82 (0.79 to 0.87) | <0.001a | |||
| Length of stay, days | ||||||||
| ≤3 | 7694 (44.9) | 9455 (55.1) | Reference | Reference | — | |||
| 4–7 | 6351 (42.1) | 8743 (57.9) | 1.07 (1.04 to 1.10) | 1.04 (1.01 to 1.07) | 0.019a | |||
| >7 | 10 809 (44.8) | 13 344 (55.2) | 1.03 (1.01 to 1.06) | 1.00 (0.97 to 1.02) | 0.852 | |||
| Primary care consultations in the previous year | ||||||||
| 0 | 358 (91.1) | 35 (8.9) | Reference | Reference | — | |||
| <5 | 1108 (61.3) | 700 (38.7) | 5.31 (3.77 to 7.48) | 5.11 (3.63 to 7.21) | <0.001a | |||
| 5–15 | 4039 (50.7) | 3931 (49.3) | 7.27 (5.20 to 10.16) | 7.05 (5.04 to 9.87) | <0.001a | |||
| >15 | 19 349 (41.9) | 26 876 (58.1) | 9.30 (6.66 to 12.99) | 8.98 (6.42 to 12.55) | <0.001a | |||
| IMD score (patient level) | ||||||||
| 1 (least deprived) | 4617 (43.6) | 5979 (56.4) | Reference | Reference | — | |||
| 2 | 5038 (44.2) | 6369 (55.8) | 0.98 (0.94 to 1.01) | 0.96 (0.93 to 0.99) | 0.019a | |||
| 3 | 5116 (43.0) | 6793 (57.0) | 1.01 (0.98 to 1.04) | 0.99 (0.96 to 1.03) | 0.585 | |||
| 4 | 5053 (44.9) | 6210 (55.1) | 0.95 (0.92 to 0.99) | 0.93 (0.90 to 0.96) | <0.001a | |||
| 5 (most deprived) | 5002 (44.8) | 6169 (55.2) | 0.96 (0.93 to 0.99) | 0.91 (0.88 to 0.94) | <0.001a | |||
| Unknown | 28 (56.0) | 22 (44.0) | 0.73 (0.48 to 1.10) | 0.78 (0.51 to 1.18) | 0.237 | |||
| Practice region | ||||||||
| West Midlands | 2878 (41.2) | 4112 (58.8) | Reference | Reference | — | |||
| North West | 4160 (42.2) | 5695 (57.8) | 0.97 (0.93 to 1.01) | 0.98 (0.94 to 1.02) | 0.245 | |||
| Yorkshire & The Humber | 857 (44.5) | 1069 (55.5) | 0.89 (0.84 to 0.95) | 0.89 (0.83 to 0.95) | <0.001a | |||
| East Midlands | 533 (41.2) | 761 (58.8) | 1.00 (0.92 to 1.07) | 1.01 (0.93 to 1.09) | 0.846 | |||
| North East | 568 (39.1) | 886 (60.9) | 1.05 (0.98 to 1.12) | 1.05 (0.98 to 1.13) | 0.154 | |||
| East of England | 2246 (40.2) | 3343 (59.8) | 1.03 (0.99 to 1.08) | 1.04 (0.99 to 1.08) | 0.12 | |||
| South West | 3268 (43.3) | 4273 (56.7) | 0.93 (0.89 to 0.97) | 0.92 (0.89 to 0.96) | <0.001a | |||
| South Central | 3116 (44.3) | 3915 (55.7) | 0.91 (0.87 to 0.95) | 0.90 (0.86 to 0.94) | <0.001a | |||
| London | 3492 (49.1) | 3622 (50.9) | 0.80 (0.77 to 0.84) | 0.83 (0.79 to 0.86) | <0.001a | |||
| South East Coast | 3736 (49.1) | 3866 (50.9) | 0.80 (0.77 to 0.84) | 0.81 (0.77 to 0.85) | <0.001a | |||
| Charlson Comorbidity | ||||||||
| Index scoreb | ||||||||
| 0 | 6590 (48.3) | 7046 (51.7) | Reference | Reference | — | |||
| 1 | 5488 (44.7) | 6802 (55.3) | 1.10 (1.06 to 1.13) | 0.99 (0.96 to 1.02) | 0.562 | |||
| 2 | 4387 (44.3) | 5525 (55.7) | 1.11 (1.07 to 1.15) | 0.98 (0.95 to 1.02) | 0.42 | |||
| 3 | 3279 (42.2) | 4498 (57.8) | 1.18 (1.14 to 1.23) | 1.04 (1.00 to 1.08) | 0.047a | |||
| 4 | 2078 (40.8) | 3018 (59.2) | 1.23 (1.18 to 1.28) | 1.08 (1.03 to 1.13) | 0.001a | |||
| ≥5 | 3032 (39.5) | 4653 (60.5) | 1.28 (1.24 to 1.33) | 1.14 (1.09 to 1.18) | <0.001a | |||
| Comorbidities | ||||||||
| COPD | 4666 (39.5) | 7132 (60.5) | 1.14 (1.12 to 1.17) | 1.05 (1.01 to 1.08) | 0.003a | |||
| Asthma | 5351 (40.1) | 7996 (59.9) | 1.12 (1.09 to 1.15) | 1.06 (1.03 to 1.08) | <0.001a | |||
| Chronic lung diseasec | 391 (43.6) | 505 (56.4) | 1.00 (0.92 to 1.09) | — | — | |||
| Congestive cardiac failure | 2251 (39.9) | 3397 (60.1) | 1.15 (1.11 to 1.19) | 1.14 (1.10 to 1.18) | <0.001a | |||
| Myocardial infarction | 2125 (40.3) | 3143 (59.7) | 1.12 (1.08 to 1.17) | 1.10 (1.06 to 1.15) | <0.001a | |||
| Other cardiac diseasesd | 9755 (41.8) | 13 571 (58.2) | 1.11 (1.08 to 1.13) | 1.11 (1.09 to 1.14) | <0.001a | |||
| Malignancy | 5231 (42.2) | 7166 (57.8) | 1.07 (1.04 to 1.10) | — | — | |||
| Chronic renal disease | 4624 (42.1) | 6350 (57.9) | 1.08 (1.06 to 1.11) | — | — | |||
| Cerebrovascular disease | 3806 (40.5) | 5584 (59.5) | 1.12 (1.09 to 1.15) | — | — | |||
| Diabetes mellitus | 2701 (42.4) | 3676 (57.6) | 1.07 (1.03 to 1.11) | 1.04 (1.01 to 1.07) | 0.009a | |||
| Cognitive impairment | 2725 (46.7) | 3109 (53.3) | 0.97 (0.94 to 1.01) | — | — | |||
| Liver disease | 213 (40.1) | 318 (59.9) | 1.09 (0.98 to 1.21) | — | — | |||
↵a Signify a P -value of <0.05.
↵b Charlson Comorbidity Index was added to a separate multivariate model with all the listed variables except specific comorbidities.
↵c Chronic lung disease excluding COPD and asthma.
↵d Other cardiac diseases excluding CCF and MI (for example, hypertension, arrhythmias, valvular heart disease, conduction disorder of the heart, pericarditis, and myocarditis). CCF = congestive cardiac failure. COPD = chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. CRR = competing risks regression. IMD = Index of Multiple Deprivation. MI = myocardial infarction. sHR = subdistribution hazard ratio.