Crude and adjusted odds ratios comparing odds of a self-referred admission in patients who visited a GP in the 3 days before emergency admissiona
| Variable | Unadjusted, N= 116 097, OR (95% CI) | Adjusted, N= 116 097, OR (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|
| Admission diagnosis | ||
| Ectopic | 0.57 (0.36 to 0.90) | 0.59 (0.37 to 0.94) |
| Sepsis | 1.15 (1.06 to 1.24) | 1.09 (1.01 to 1.18) |
| Pulmonary embolism | 0.88 (0.78 to 1.00) | — |
| UTI | 1.14 (1.09 to 1.19) | 1.09 (1.04 to 1.14) |
| All other | Reference | Reference |
| Patient factors | ||
| Sex, women versus men | 1.00 (0.98 to 1.02) | — |
| Age, 10-year increase | 1.01 (1.01 to 1.02) | 0.99 (0.99 to 1.00) |
| Indices of Multiple Deprivation | ||
| Most versus least deprived | 1.02 (0.98 to 1.06) | — |
| GP reported comorbidity | ||
| None | Reference | Reference |
| 1 | 1.09 (1.05 to 1.12) | 1.07 (1.03 to 1.11) |
| 2+ | 1.10 (1.07 to 1.12) | 1.05 (1.01 to 1.08) |
| Health service use in patients who are deteriorating within 3 days | ||
| Number of GP consultations | 0.91 (0.88 to 0.93) | 0.91 (0.89 to 0.93) |
| Consultation type | ||
| Face-to-face | Reference | Reference |
| Telephone | 1.26 (1.22 to 1.30) | 1.14 (1.11 to 1.18) |
| Face-to-face and telephone | 0.90 (0.86 to 0.94) | 0.89 (0.85 to 0.92) |
| GP consultation duration | ||
| 5-minute increase | 0.89 (0.89 to 0.90) | 0.90 (0.89 to 0.91) |
| Female GP | 0.93 (0.91 to 0.98) | 0.96 (0.94 to 0.98) |
| Also seen by a nurse | 0.84 (0.80 to 0.87) | 0.89 (0.85 to 0.92) |
| Health service use in previous 12 months | ||
| Number of GP consultations, 3–365 days | 1.01 (1.01 to 1.01) | — |
| Admission in previous 3-<30 days | ||
| None | Reference | Reference |
| Surgical | 1.16 (1.12 to 1.20) | 1.07 (1.04 to 1.11) |
| Non-surgical | 1.16 (1.13 to 1.20) | 1.03 (1.00 to 1.06) |
| ED visits previous (3–365 days) | ||
| 0 | Reference | Reference |
| 1 | 1.14 (1.11 to 1.17) | 1.13 (1.10 to 1.16) |
| 2 | 1.31 (1.28 to 1.34) | 1.29 (1.25 to 1.33) |
| Previous admissions (30–<365 days) | ||
| Elective (1+ versus 0) | 1.05 (1.02 to 1.07) | — |
| Emergency (1+ versus 0) | 1.13 (1.12 to 1.16) | 0.94 (0.91 to 0.96) |
↵a Logistic model using generalised estimating equations, clustering by GP practice, for 116 097 emergency admissions by 90 193 patients. ED = emergency department. OR = odds ratio. UTI = urinary tract infections.