Table 3.

Predictors of rapid decline in eGFR (>5 ml/min/1.73 m²/year from baseline) using Cox proportional hazards

Covariate	Univariable analysis, HR (95% CI)	P-value	Multivariable analysis, HR (95% CI) (n = 568)	P-value
Age, years	1.005 (0.983 to 1.028)	0.663	1.012 (0.985 to1.040)	0.389

Sex (male compared with female)	0.887 (0.653 to 1.204)	0.443	0.753 (0.518 to 1.096)	0.139

BMI, kg/m²	1.025 (0.997 to 1.054)	0.083	1.030 (0.998 to 1.062)	0.068

Smoking status (compared with never smoker)
Current smoker	0.761 (0.280 to 2.076)	0.594	0.858 (0.304 to 2.424)	0.773
Former smoker	1.388^a (1.021 to 1.887)	0.037	1.457^a (1.033 to 2.054)	0.032

Alcohol use (compared with no alcohol)	0.833 (0.602 to 1.152)	0.270	0.740 (0.508 to 1.076)	0.115

Level of education (higher education compared with secondary)	1.098 (0.782 to 1.542)	0.590	1.419 (0.953 to 2.112)	0.085

Systolic blood pressure, mg Hg	1.017^a (1.009 to 1.025)	<0.0001	1.013^a (1.004 to 1.022)	0.006

Diastolic blood pressure, mg Hg	1.014^a (1.001 to 1.028)	0.041

Ethnicity (white compared with black and minority ethnic)	0.582 (0.216 to 1.570)	0.285	0.550 (0.169 to 1.792)	0.321

Waist:hip ratio	1.743 (0.374 to 8.120)	0.479

Waist circumference	1.010 (0.999 to 1.020)	0.050

CKD stage at baseline (compared with normal kidney function)^b
1	1.695 (0.918 to 3.130)	0.092	1.521 (0.722 to 3.206)	0.270
2	1.191 (0.790 to 1.796)	0.405	0.993 (0.596 to 1.654)	0.987
3a	0.351^a (0.229 to 0.540)	<0.0001	0.218^a (0.129 to 0.368)	<0.0001
3b	0.332^a (0.166 to 0.666)	0.002	0.267^a (0.127 to 0.563)	0.001

Log ACR	1.174^a (1.033 to 1.334)	0.014	1.116 (0.935 to 1.332)	0.224

Known CKD at baseline (yes versus no)	1.017 (0.741 to 1.394)	0.919	1.670^a (1.140 to 2.446)	0.008

↵a Statistical significance at 5% (P ≤ 0.05).
↵b Normal kidney function: those with eGFR >60 ml/min/1.73 m²and ACR <3 mg/mmol. ACR = albumin–creatinine ratio. BMI = body mass index. CKD = chronic kidney disease. eGFR = estimated glomerular filtration rate. HR = hazard ratio.