An evidence synthesis approach to estimating Hepatitis C prevalence in England and Wales

Stat Methods Med Res. 2009 Aug;18(4):361-79. doi: 10.1177/0962280208094691. Epub 2008 Nov 26.

Abstract

In England and Wales, routine monitoring has been consistently showing an increase in mortality and morbidity due to infection with the Hepatitis C Virus (HCV). However, the magnitude of the underlying epidemic is still the subject of debate. In this paper we present estimates of the number of individuals aged 15-59 chronically infected with HCV in 2003, derived from a Bayesian synthesis of information available from multiple sources on the size of the groups at risk for HCV and the risk specific anti-HCV prevalence. Results show that the number of chronic infections is of the order of 142,000 (95% CrI: 90,000, 231,000), with the majority (85%, 95% CrI: 74%, 93%) in injecting drug users and about 80% (95% CrI: 74%, 84%) in the age group 15-44.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Cross-Sectional Studies
  • England / epidemiology
  • Female
  • Hepacivirus / pathogenicity
  • Hepatitis C, Chronic / epidemiology*
  • Hepatitis C, Chronic / mortality
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Substance Abuse, Intravenous / epidemiology
  • Wales / epidemiology
  • Young Adult