Background: Many theories have been proposed to explain the high levels of 'excess' mortality (i.e. higher mortality over and above that explained by differences in socio-economic circumstances) shown in Scotland-and, especially, in its largest city, Glasgow-compared with elsewhere in the UK. One such proposal relates to differences in optimism, given previously reported evidence of the health benefits of an optimistic outlook.
Methods: A representative survey of Glasgow, Liverpool and Manchester was undertaken in 2011. Optimism was measured by the Life Orientation Test (Revised) (LOT-R), and compared between the cities by means of multiple linear regression models, adjusting for any differences in sample characteristics.
Results: Unadjusted analyses showed LOT-R scores to be similar in Glasgow and Liverpool (mean score (SD): 14.7 (4.0) for both), but lower in Manchester (13.9 (3.8)). This was consistent in analyses by age, gender and social class. Multiple regression confirmed the city results: compared with Glasgow, optimism was either similar (Liverpool: adjusted difference in mean score: -0.16 (95% CI -0.45 to 0.13)) or lower (Manchester: -0.85 (-1.14 to -0.56)).
Conclusions: The reasons for high levels of Scottish 'excess' mortality remain unclear. However, differences in psychological outlook such as optimism appear to be an unlikely explanation.
Keywords: Glasgow; Life Orientation Test (Revised); excess mortality; optimism; post-industrial.
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