Frailty as a Predictor of Future Falls Among Community-Dwelling Older People: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Although multiple longitudinal studies have investigated frailty as a predictor of future falls, the results were mixed. Thus far, no systematic review or meta-analysis on this topic has been conducted.

Objective: To review the evidence of frailty as a predictor of future falls among community-dwelling older people.

Methods: Systematic review of literature and meta-analysis were performed using 6 electronic databases (Embase, Scopus, MEDLINE, CINAHL Plus, PsycINFO, and the Cochrane Library) searching for studies that prospectively examined risk of future fall risk according to frailty among community-dwelling older people published from 2010 to April 2015 with no language restrictions.

Results: Of 2245 studies identified through the systematic review, 11 studies incorporating 68,723 individuals were included in the meta-analysis. Among 7 studies reporting odds ratios (ORs), frailty and prefrailty were significantly associated with higher risk of future falls (pooled OR = 1.84, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 1.43-2.38, P < .001; pooled OR = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.01-1.53, P = .005, respectively). Among 4 studies reporting hazard ratios (HRs), whereas frailty was significantly associated with higher risk of future falls (pooled HR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.10-1.41, P < .001), future fall risk according to prefrailty did not reach statistical significance (pooled HR = 1.14, 95% CI = 0.95-1·36, P = .15). High heterogeneity was noted among 7 studies reporting ORs and seemed attributed to difference in gender proportion of cohorts according to subgroup and meta-regression analyses.

Conclusions: Frailty is demonstrated to be a significant predictor of future falls among community-dwelling older people despite various criteria used to define frailty. The future fall risk according to frailty seemed to be higher in men than in women.