GP numbers drop despite government pledge to boost workforce

General practice leaders have expressed alarm at new figures showing that the number of full time equivalent GPs in England fell by more than 400 in the last three months of 2016.

The new figures, from NHS Digital,1 also show a decrease in the overall GP head count in England between September and December 2016, despite pledges from government and NHS England to increase the workforce by 5000 GPs by 2020.2

GP leaders said that policymakers must start turning promises into action if the chronic decline in GP numbers is to be reversed.

The figures show that there were 34 050 full time equivalent (FTE) GPs, including registrars, locums, and retainers, as at 31 December 2016. This is a decline of 445 (or 1.3%) from 34 495 in September 2016. The total GP headcount fell by 390 (or 0.9%), from 41 865 to 41 475.

The number of FTE GPs excluding registrars, retainers, and locum doctors fell by 323 (1.1%) in the same period, from 28 458 to 28 135. The overall GP headcount excluding registrars, retainers, and locum doctors, also decreased, from 34 836 to 34 549 (a fall of 287 doctors or 0.8%).

Valid data were extracted from 92.6% of eligible general practices in December 2016, with estimates applying to the remaining 7.4% of practices.

NHS Digital said that the “experimental” figures should be treated with caution as this was the first time that data had been extracted on a quarterly basis and in December rather than in March and September. “It is not known how seasonality fluctuations impact the data,” its report said.

But Helen Stokes-Lampard, chair of the Royal College of General Practitioners, described the figures as “a huge blow” and urged policymakers and medical leaders to “redouble efforts” to recruit more GPs. She said, “We must be careful when comparing these with previous figures . . . but at face value a drop of over 400 full time equivalent GPs is dreadful when we so desperately need thousands more in order to cope with ever growing patient demand.

“We need to turn the tide. It is clear that current efforts to recruit more GPs and make general practice an attractive profession must be stepped up further, and we will continue to work with Health Education England and others to help wherever we can.”

Krishna Kasaraneni, the BMA’s lead on GP education, training, and workforce, said, “These figures underline just how far we are from meeting the government’s own target of recruiting and retaining more GPs.

“It is not acceptable for this recruitment and retention crisis to be allowed to get worse. It is time for the government to act urgently . . . to deliver a long term, sustainable plan for a well resourced and appropriately staffed general practice.”

A Department of Health spokesperson said, “GPs are the absolute bedrock of the health service, and we remain committed to an extra 5000 doctors in general practice by 2020. We have made important strides over the last year to improve conditions to attract more GPs—such as paying a large amount of GP indemnity costs, cutting red tape, agreeing a new contract with their union to deliver a 1% pay rise, as well as bringing in new schemes to help GPs work more flexibly towards retirement.

“We currently have the highest number of GPs in training than ever before, and we know that it will take time for this to impact on GP workforce numbers.”